Nat Gas – Daily Rejection, Weekly Bottoming: Range-Bound for Now, Upside Building

Overview

Quick technical breakdown on Nat Gas (NG), focusing on how the daily chart’s near-term weakness contrasts with an increasingly constructive weekly setup:

Daily Chart – Repeated Rejection, Range-Bound Structure

• Price continues to get rejected at the top of a multi-month range that’s been in place since early August.

• Oct 1:
  ‣ Closed outside the upper Bollinger Band – attempt to break out
  ‣ Reversed the next day: made a new high, then closed back inside the range

• Oct 7:
  ‣ Same pattern: closed above the upper Bollinger Band
  ‣ Followed by a sharp reversal candle and close back inside the range

• These failed breakouts suggest the market is not yet ready for a sustained move higher.

• Price structure now points toward a potential rotation down to the lower Bollinger Band (~3.06).

• Expect sideways action in the short term as daily overbought/oversold dynamics reset.

Weekly Chart – Early Signs of a Bottom Forming

• Late July: Weekly close below the lower Bollinger Band → extreme downside extension

• Following week:
  ‣ Made a new low, but closed back above the prior week’s close and back inside the lower Bollinger Band
  ‣ Strong reversal signal

• Four weeks later: A weekly doji printed while momentum (Stochastics ≈ 10) remained deeply oversold
  ‣ Doji signals a shift in control — bears losing steam, buyers starting to step in

• Last week:
  ‣ Strong bullish candle, nearly twice the size of the doji
  ‣ Closed above the doji high → bullish confirmation of a potential bottom

• Weekly momentum has started to turn higher, supporting the case for a broader reversal.

Key Takeaway

• The weekly chart is showing bottoming behavior, supported by oversold momentum and confirmed bullish structure.

• The daily chart remains conflicted, with multiple failed breakouts and a short-term bearish tilt.

• Until these timeframes align, expect range-bound consolidation between the upper and lower edges of the multi-month range.

• Once alignment kicks in, we’re anticipating a breakout to the upside as the weekly structure takes the lead.

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