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- Natural Gas Spread October 2025 January 2026
Natural Gas Spread October 2025 January 2026
Liquidity Energy, LLC
Randall Rothenberg
September 08, 2025
In partnership with
September 8,2025
Overview
The October 2025 January 2026 natural gas spread has risen to its highest price, narrowest spread value since May 13.
The spread is following the strength seen in the spot futures gas contract, which today rose to its highest price since July 23rd. The prospect for decent near term demand for gas amid the recent drop in natural gas production has supported the spot futures and even more so the futures curve.
Natural gas production in September is averaging 107.5 BCF/d, down from the record production seen in August of 108.3 BCF/d. Added to this narrative is the improved EIA gas storage data seen in recent weeks, notably the roughly 20 BCF lower than expected addition to inventories seen in prior weeks.
Technically, though, today, the October January spread has risen to test the upper bollinger band, which may see the spread stop its advance currently. The band intersects at the $-1.09 area. The high for the spread today is $1.059, which almost tested resistance at $-1.050-$1.052. Above that, next resistance for October versus January is seen at the psychological level at $-1.00. Downside support for October versus January is seen at $-1.171-$1.172 and then at $-1.227-$1.228. Momentum for the spread favors the October still gaining on January, although the October is very close to being overbought versus the January.
We suspect that some of today's upside strength for October is a result of unwinding of positions as the trade has likely been leaning bearish in the spread for quite a while, attested by the very large open interest in the Calendar Spread options, especially the -$-1.50 put options on the spread.
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Disclaimer
This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC
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