Natural Gas Update 6-12-2025

Overview

Natural Gas--NG is up 8.9 cents
NG futures are higher as feed gas demand for LNG export has improved and the forecast is for temperatures to rise after June 16, as per the NOAA forecast. The market seems to have built in the large storage build expected today.

Forecaster Atmospheric G2 stated on Wednesday that above-normal temperatures are expected to move from the West into the central and eastern US from June 16 to 20. (MSN) The NOAA 6-14 forecast still shows above normal temperatures across most of the US throughout.

Total feedgas flows to US LNG export terminals are estimated up 0.379 BCF/d today to 14.56 BCF/d, Bloomberg shows. Supply to Cameron LNG is recovering back toward normal levels suggesting the end of maintenance but Sabine Pass works are expected until late-June. Yesterday, Reuters reported that the average feed gas volume in June had fallen to 13.8 BCF/d, from May's level of 15.0 BCF/d. Looking out further, LNG demand is seen rising later this summer. Venture Global LNG Inc. last week clinched two key approvals from federal regulators for its Plaquemines export facility, meaning another boost in Gulf Coast feed gas demand is imminent this summer. Feed gas nominations to the facility on the Gator Express pipeline increased in mid-May, according to Wood Mackenzie pipeline data, indicating the trains began processing gas consistently. (NGI)

The EIA gas storage data is seen as a build of 106 to 110 BCF. This would be the 7th straight injection of over 100 BCF, which would tie a record from 2014. Last year saw an increase of 77 BCF and the 5 year average build for the week is 87 BCF. May saw a record amount of gas injected at 497 BCF. (Reuters)

LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would rise from 98.6 BCF/d this week to 100.0 BCF/d next week. The estimates were a total of 0.7 BCF/d below those seen Monday.

There are several notable options trades in the NG/LN contract on the CME from Wednesday's activity. 4,000 contracts of the August $6.00 calls traded 1.1 cents. The July/October -25 cent put was bought versus selling of the -5 cent call for a cost of 0.9 cents. That looks to be an initiating position as open interest rose for each option. Further in the July/October 3 month options, the -10 cent call saw open interest rise by 8,450 contracts--with trades seen at a cost of 0.7/0.8/and 0.9 cents to the buyer. Additionally, the July October 3 month -10 cent call was purchased against selling of the Flat call for a cost of 0.8 cents. But, the October January 3 month -$1.25 put saw open interest decline with a trade seen at a cost of 15.6 cents to the buyer.

Technically NG spot futures support is seen at the lows of Tuesday and today at 3.515 / 3.510. Below that is yesterday's low of 3.453, which is possible support. Resistance is seen at 3.656-3.662 and then at 3.747-3.750. Momentum remains negative on the NG DC chart.

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