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- Natural Gas Update 6-16-2025
6-16-2025
Overview
Natural Gas--NG is up 8.9 cents
NG spot futures are higher this morning as heat is seen returning to portions of the U.S. in the 10 day forecast. Also supportive is a partial suspension of gas production in Iran, with Mideast tensions supporting global gas prices.
Iran has partially suspended gas production at the world's biggest gas field after an Israeli strike caused a fire there on Saturday, the semi-official Tasnim news agency reported, in what would be the first Israeli strike on Iran's oil and gas sector. The South Pars field is responsible for the lion's share of gas production in Iran, the world's third largest gas producer after the United States and Russia. Iran shares the field with Qatar. (Reuters)
Chicago will see temperatures rise 8-10 degrees over normal in the period between June 21 and 23, while NY will see highs 9 to 13 degrees above normal between June 23 and 25.
Additionally likely supporting TTF prices today, the European Commission plans to propose to the European Union a ban on all new contracts for the supply of Russian gas based on trade law. This initiative aims to bypass the veto imposed by Hungary and Slovakia. Short-term agreements for the import of pipeline gas and LNG from Russia must be terminated by 2026, while long-term contracts must end by January 1, 2028. This initiative emerged following last month’s announcement of the European Commission’s plan to completely stop imports of Russian oil and gas by 2027. (Financial Times)
Notable is the September TTF option trade seen from Friday's activity on the CME. The Euro 33/38/43 call butterfly was bought for a total cost of 1.3 Euro with delta futures sales in September TTF at 38 .00 Euro. The September TTF is trading just below 40 Euro today, and is trading at its best value since April 4th.
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Asian gas prices have risen over the past few session, supported by rising temperatures in the region and by the tension in the Mideast. The spot August JKM futures settled Friday at their best level since the beginning of April. August JKM futures settled Friday at $13.385/MMbtu, up from a settlement of $12.50 seen Monday June 9.
In the CFTC COT report seen Friday, money managers added new shorts raising their net short total by 31,656 contracts to 84,420 contracts. The data was for the week ended Tuesday June 10.
In the LN/NG options, the 1 month October November calendar spread puts traded. The -50 cent put was bought against which the -60 cent put was sold for a cost of 2.2 cents. Based on open interest data from the CME, these were a closing trade for the -50 cent put and an opening trade for the - 60 cent put.
The EIA's gas storage data will be issued Wednesday at Noon EST due to Thursday's Juneteenth national holiday. Initia estimates we have seen are calling for a build of 96 to 102 BCF. This compares to last year's and the 5 year average build of 72 BCF. A build under 100 BCF would break the 7 week streak of 100+ BCF builds seen prior to this week's report.
The Baker Hughes gas rig count showed a drop of 1 unit in Friday's report.
There is a gap from over the weekend for the NG spot futures that goes from the Friday high of 3.623 to today's session low of 3.634. Technically, NG spot futures look poised to see the DC chart's momentum turn upward. Resistance for the spot NG futures at 3.747-3.750 was tested with a high overnight of 3.760. Above that resistance is seen at 3.815-3.817. Support comes in at the gap area at 3.623-3.626. Below that support lies at 3,527-3.531.
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Disclaimer
This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC
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