Natural Gas Update 6-17-2025

Overview

NG futures are higher again today as very hot temperatures are set for the Eastern portion of the U.S. in the 5 to 10 day forecast. The ongoing Iran Israel conflict is also seen underpinning natural gas prices.

The Weather channel forecasts NY City to see highs of 99 degrees on June 23 and 24. That is 15 degrees over the average high. Washington, D.C. is set to see temperatures rise to 98 to 100 degrees in the next week. Those highs are 9 to 11 degrees above normal.

Qatar confirmed Tuesday that its gas production in the North Dome gas field remains steady, following an Israeli strike on the field Saturday. Iran partially suspended production at the field Saturday. (Investing.com)

On Monday, on the CME, 10,000 of the October $4.60 calls traded at a cost between 22.7 and 25.3 cents. These trades were initiating as CME data shows open interest in that strike rising by over 10,000 contracts.  Additionally on Monday, in the July October LN/NG 3 month CSO options, 3,000 contracts of the minus 15 cent call were bought against selling of the minus 10 cent call for a cost of 1.7 cents.  As per CME data, the -15 cent call open interest rose, while the - 10 cent call open interest fell. Also in the July October 3 month CSO, the minus 15 cent puts traded 3.1 cents. Here too the open interest fell. The July October spread settled at minus 15.0 cents.

Renewables remain cost-competitive in the United States despite rising natural gas competitiveness, according to Lazard’s 2025 “Levelized Cost of Energy+” report, which estimates combined cycle natural gas costs at $0.048/kWh to $0.107/kWh, solar at $0.038/kWh to $0.212/kWh, and nuclear at $0.141/kWh to $0.220/kWh. “This year’s report shows sharp declines for battery energy storage systems across hybrid and standalone storage projects,” said Lazard. (pv-magazine)

Rising tensions in the Middle East will accelerate natural gas negotiations between Russia and China, with a decision likely this year, the head of a think-tank that advises the Russian government on China told Reuters. This deal is capable of guaranteeing China an uninterrupted supply of energy. (Reuters)

Technically NG spot futures have positive momentum basis the DC chart as resistance at 3.840 has been tested with that being the high. Resistance is then seen above at 3.930-3.939. Support comes in at 3.675-3.679 via the 60 minute July chart.

Enjoyed this article?

Subscribe to never miss an issue. Daily updates provide a comprehensive analysis of both the fundamentals and technical factors driving energy markets.

Click below to view our other newsletters on our website:

Daily Energy Market Update

Ethanol Report

Fuel and Freight Daily Report

Disclaimer

This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC