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- Natural Gas Update 6-18-2025
Overview
Natural Gas--NG is up 6.1 cents
NG spot futures have risen to a fresh 2 month high today. The TTF and JKM prices overseas have also risen to their best value in months as worries over traffic in the Straits of Hormuz support those markets. The NG futures are also to some degree supported by those concerns, but are more so being boosted by the prospect for very hot weather in the Eastern portion of the U.S. next week.
The Commodity Weather Group said Tuesday that forecasts shifted hotter for much of the eastern half of the US for June 22-26. (MSN)
U.S. domestic natural gas production rose to a new high for the month at 107.38 BCF/d yesterday, according to Bloomberg data. Pipeline flows show a drop to 105.20 bBC/d today, but the data could still be revised.
TTF futures prices have risen today to their best value since April 3 as concerns over traffic through the Straits of Hormuz support the market. “Qatar, which makes up around 20% of global LNG trade, uses this route to export LNG. There is no alternative route.” (ING) Technically the TTF futures have positive momentum that is not overbought. There is a gap to fill above the market from 40.500 to 40.840 Euro. Currently the spot TTF futures have a high today of 40.420 Euro. The contract has been riding the upper bollinger band the past 4 sessions amid the heightened Mideast tension.
The EIA gas storage data to be released today at 12 PM EST is seen as a build of 98 BCF as per the WSJ & Reuters surveys. This compares to last year's and the 5 year average builds of 72 BCF.
LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would rise from 98.8 BCF/d this week to 102.0 BCF/d next week. These forecasts were down a total of 0.1 BCF/d from those seen Friday.
On Tuesday, on the CME, in NG Calendar Spread Options (CSO) options, 3,000 contracts of the August/September -5 cent/+5 cent fence traded. The +5 cent call was bought and the -5 cent put was sold at a cost to the call buyer of the fence of 1.2 cents. Given open interest data from the CME, this was a position that was initiated. The Aug /Sept futures spread settled Tuesday at +1.6 cents. Nearly 5,000 contracts traded Tuesday in the July $3.70 / $3.55 put spread with the buyer of the $3.70 put paying 4.8 cents, with delta July futures buys at $3.83. The open interest for the $3.55 puts fell, while that for the $3.70 put rose.
Technically NG has positive momentum that is not overbought. Support for the spot futures lies at the overnight low at 3.813-3.814 and then at 3.719-3.720. Resistance at 3.930-3.939 has been tested this morning with a high of 3.933. Above that resistance lies at 4.045-4.050.
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This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
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