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- Natural Gas Update 6-24-2025
Overview
Natural Gas--August NG is down 4.4 cents
NG prices are lower today as the forecast is for a return to normal temperatures in the coming days. Production remains strong. And the easing of tension in the Mideast has taken some premium out of the market. That is especially notable in the TTF pricing today.
Total feedgas flows to U.S. LNG export terminals were estimated to be 14.65 BCF/d on Monday, Bloomberg showed, compared to 13.8 BCF/d on June 22 and an average of 13.64 BCF/d so far in June. The driver of Monday’s gains was Cheniere's Sabine Pass facility finally returning from nearly a month of maintenance. Celsius Energy put Monday's feed gas volume at the highest in almost one month.
LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 US states rose to 105.5 BCF/d so far in June from 105.2 BCF/d in May. U.S. domestic natural gas production was estimated at 106.3 BCF/d on June 23 compared to the 30 day average of 105.66 BCF/d, according to Bloomberg data.
TTF futures prices have gapped lower today as Mideast tension has eased. The gap on the July spot futures goes from 40.200 down to 37.100. Currently the spot July TTF futures are down 4.4 Euro, which is over 10 %. Support is now seen at the 33.825 area and resistance lies at the 38.620 area. Momentum has turned negative and the contract was repelled from the test of the upper bollinger band seen the past several sessions.
The next day cash Henry Hub was seen valued Monday near $3.50, which we believe also contributed some to the slide in NG futures as the two should tend toward convergence as the July futures expire Thursday. Monday's cash futures differential was about 23 cents, down from a differential of 37 cents seen last Wednesday and the +80 cent differential seen Monday June 16.
Money managers covered some of their short position in NG futures /options on the CME in the week ended Tuesday June 17. Net shorts fell by 21,159 contracts to a total of 63,260 contracts. This was mostly a function of short positions being covered.
Technically the August NG futures have seen momentum turn negative. Support lies at the overnight low at 3.693-3.697 and then at 3.610. Resistance above comes in at 3.894-3.896 and then at 4.010-4.016.
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This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
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