Natural Gas Update 6-9-2025

Overview

Natural Gas--NG is down 6.0 cents
NG is lower as overall national weather demand says heat remains elusive. Yet, demand is running over the 5 year average, as per Bloomberg data, even as the 15 day CDD count fell slightly overnight. Feed gas volumes to the LNG export plants are still "curtailed". 

Demand remains above the previous five-year average around 68 BCF/d for the time of year, as per Bloomberg data.  The GFS 6z 15day has fallen just over 6 CDDs nationally. Dallas this week will see highs 14 to 16 degrees below normal. Chicago during the course of the next 14 days will see highs 3 to 10 degrees below normal, except for one day of +6 degrees. Atlanta will see highs 3 to 8 degrees below normal.

Feed gas deliveries at U.S. LNG export facilities continue to flow at some of the lowest levels in months as maintenance work continued and periodic outages cut into demand. (NGI) Bloomberg puts volume at 13.59 BCF/d, compared to pre maintenance levels as high as 16.7 BCF/d due to ongoing outages at Sabine Pass and Cameron. 

The Baker Hughes gas rig count showed a increase of 5 units. But the increase was a function of a reclassification. The reclassification reduced the number of oil rigs by 10 and added 10 to the number of gas rigs. (WSJ)

Some shortcovering by money managers occurred in the week ended Tuesday June 3, as per Friday's CFTC report. Money managers added more longs than shorts in the report. Thus, net shorts fell by 10,776 contracts to a total of 52,765 contracts.

Chinese data seen today showed that natural gas imports - including piped gas and LNG - fell 10.8% on the year to 10.11 million tons. Imports of spot LNG remained weak as Asian prices hovered above $11/mmBtu, a level deemed too expensive for Chinese buyers given ample domestic supplies and weaker-than-expected industrial consumption of the fuel, traders
have said. (LESG) Asian spot natural gas prices eased slightly this past week, slipping for the first time in five weeks, as weak demand in the region weighed on prices, Reuters reports.

Technically momentum basis the DC chart is poised to turn downward. Resistance above lies at 3.815-3.817 and then at 3.930-3.939. Support comes in at 3.608-3.613 and then at 3.527-3.531. The 100 day moving average on the DC chart intersects at 3.694.

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