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- Natural Gas Update 8-14-2025
Overview
Natural Gas- NG is down 4.0 cents
NG futures prices are lower today as the market expects lower demand at the end of the month and a bearish EIA gas storage number is due out today. European TTF prices have fallen to their lowest value since May 2nd as speculative length has been pared recently ahead of Friday's meeting between Presidents Trump and Putin. Some wonder if Russian gas may flow more easily as a result of the meeting.
Wednesday's modest rally in NG futures was seen as being due to an increased demand forecast, "dip buying" and "near-record" LNG feed gas flows. (Reuters/Celsius Energy) We believe that next day Henry Hub cash pricing remaining well over the spot futures propped up front end prices. September and October futures settled Wednesday up 2.0 to 2.1 cents. But, the December through March contracts settled down 1.6 to 2.1 cents. We see this as a reflection of the market being less concerned about supply issues in the winter as storage is seen as ample.
The EIA storage data due out today is seen as a build of 54 to 55 BCF as per WSJ and Reuters surveys. This compares to the draw of 2 BCF seen last year and the 5 year average build of 33 BCF.
NG was still being weighed down somewhat by cooler forecasts on Wednesday as forecasts shifted slightly cooler in the Northeast for August 18-22, and cooler across the eastern two-thirds of the US for August 23-27, according to Bloomberg. Meteorologists still see above-normal heat through August 27 but with lower intensity than previously forecast, reducing demand, as per Oil Price commentary.
On Wednesday, LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would ease from 111.4 BCF/d this week to 111 BCF/d next week. This forecast was up a total of 2.8 BCF/d from the prior day's estimates.
According to Trading Economics, output in the Lower 48 states averaged 108.3 BCF/d so far in August, compared to July’s record 107.9 BCF/d.
TTF European gas prices have fallen today to their lowest value since May 2nd. “Speculators are likely reducing risk heading into the Trump-Putin summit amid uncertainty around whether we’ll see a ceasefire or stricter sanctions. A ceasefire would likely put pressure on prices and fuel chatter about a potential resumption of some Russian pipeline flows into Europe, though analysts still see such a restart as unlikely.", as per ING commentary. (WSJ) Speculators have cut their long positioning to its lowest amount since late May, as per ING. The drop in TTF prices has come even as Europe has been experiencing very hot weather of late. The heat wave began on Friday and is expected to continue all week. Temperatures reached as high as 109 degrees in Southern France this week. (AP)
The October NG contract's T A S volume seen Wednesday was the highest seen in the 5 days during which the index fund roll was ongoing, which for us suggested that the T A S volume Wednesday was not just about the roll, but was also likely about positioning, and not just rolling of September contracts to November as the funds were doing during the 5 day roll period, which ended Wednesday.
Reuters analysis details the strength in LNG exports, which will underpin gas prices going forward. Gas demand from LNG exporters continues to grow at a much faster pace than all other gas use segments, and will remain a key driver of U.S. gas market sentiment and price action. Between 2019 and 2024 gas demand for LNG exports rose by 140%, EIA data shows. Gas demand for LNG exports is on track to surpass the gas demand from residences in 2025, which would mean that the LNG export sector would emerge as the third largest U.S. gas consumer after electric power and industry this year. As a result, even if gas demand from offices and homes continues to decline, sustained strength in U.S. LNG exports has the potential to set the tone for the overall U.S. domestic gas market, and could keep prices trending higher.
NG futures momentum remains negative. Currently NG futures are having an inside trading day versus yesterday's price range. Support lies at 2.764-2.769. Below that support is seen at 2.688 from November 2024 DC chart data. Resistance lies at 2.881-2.887. It seems that the market needs to scale that resistance at the 2.88 area to have a more positive look for spot futures pricing. A colleague suggests that the market is still looking for a bottom.
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This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
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