Natural Gas Update April 14,2026

Overview

Natural Gas---NG is up 1.0 cents at $2.637
The drift lower in spot NG futures continued overnight even as some point to the contract being oversold. As one analyst writes: "natural gas sentiment continues to be driven—appropriately so—by an exceptionally bearish near-term temperature outlook." This week's EIA gas storage number is seen as bearish.

Early estimates for this week's EIA gas storage data are calling for a build of 50 to 62 BCF. This compares to last year's build of 22 BCF and the 5 year average build of 38 BCF. Several analysts point to the fact that gas inventories have risen such that the surplus to the 5 year average has risen over +100 BCF, with one analyst expecting the surplus to reach over 150 BCF by the end of the month. As of April 3, the surplus to the 5 year average was +87 BCF. NGI cites a roughly 15% lower than normal HDD count as contributing to the large build. Additionally, NGI adds that Lower 48 natural gas consumption for power generation fell by 4% last week.

Production in the Lower 48 states averaged 111.1 BCF/d so far in April, according to LSEG, near record levels and above March output. While, feedgas flows to the country’s nine major LNG export facilities averaged 18.9 BCF/d in April, near capacity and only modestly above March levels.

The drop in the spot NG futures seen Monday came even as NGI’s Spot Gas National Average price was up 15.0 cents to $1.525/MMBtu, per NGI’s MidDay Price Alert.

Some of the pressure on the front end of the NG curve may be also due to the index fund roll that is ongoing, in which the spot May futures are being sold versus buying of the July futures. This is reflected on the CME open interest data from Monday, in which the May futures open interest fell by over 31,000 contracts, while the July open interest rose by over 27,000 contracts.

Notable options trades seen Monday on the CME include the May/October minus 40 cent call being sold versus buying of the minus 60 cent put for a cost of 5.0 cents. The May/October futures spread settled Monday at minus 59.5 cents. In the July/October CSO, the minus 10 cent call was sold versus buying of the minus 15 cent put at a cost of 1.0 cents. The July/October spread settled Monday at minus 12.3 cents. New positions were established in the July/August CSO. The minus 5 cent call was sold against buying of the minus 10 cent put at a cost of 0.8 and 0.9 cents. The July/August futures spread settled at minus 7.6 cents Monday.

Technically, NG has fallen yet again to a fresh multi month low today. Support at 2.579-2.588 was tested overnight with the low of 2.575. Below that support comes in at 2.514-2.516. Resistance is seen at 2.795-2.796 and then at 2.888-2.897. Momentum basis the DC chart is oversold.

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Disclaimer

This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

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