Natural Gas Update August 1,2025

Overview

Natural Gas-NG is down 3.3 cents
NG spot futures are down slightly today after yesterday's rally, which was supported by stronger LNG feedgas volume and a hotter forecast. The rally came despite a disappointing EIA storage number. 

The EIA storage data disappointed with a build of 48 BCF. That was 11-12 BCF more than forecasted by surveys from WSJ and Reuters. Total storage rose to 3.123 TCF. That is +195 BCF/ +6.66% versus the 5 year average. Storage though is still 123 BCF/3.79% below last year's level. Record natural gas production and sttong wind generation during the reporting period are the reasons for the larger than expected storage injection.

Today's feedgas volume is estimated to have risen a bit further from Thursday to 15.17 BCF/d. NG spot futures got a boost Thursday from news that Freeport had ramped up volume as power was restored to the facility. Freeport LNG recovered from another power outage, with Bloomberg reporting that all three trains are now receiving feedgas, though Reuters reports that Train 1 is still offline. Nominations to Freeport recovered Thursday to 1.06 BCF/d, up from 0.06 BCF/d Wednesday. Today's feedgas volume to Freeport is said to be 1.93 BCF/d. Thursday's LNG net flows from the US totaled 14.87 BCF/d, up from the Wednesday's total of 13.33 BCF/d. Exports from Sabine Pass were also up about 0.5 BCF/d.

Forecaster Atmospheric G2 said Thursday that forecasts shifted warmer for the western half of the U.S. for August 5-9, with above-average temperatures seen expanding across the Southwest and Texas. Atmospheric G2 projects peak cooling-degree-day demand will climb 15% above normal. San Antonio is set to see highs of 100 degrees from Aug. 3 thru Aug.9. That is 4 degrees above normal. Dallas will see highs between 100 and 101 degrees from Aug. 6 thru Aug.9, which is 3-4 degrees above normal.

Bloomberg data estimated that lower 48 dry gas production stood at 107.78 BCF/d on Thursday, down from the previous day of 109.03 BCF/d.

Global LNG markets have returned to more “normal” trading similar to the period before early 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine and caused natural gas prices to hit astronomical levels, Shell plc’s top executives said Thursday. They thus see less profit possibilities from arbitrage opportunities.  After seeing muted demand for liquefied natural gas from Asia in the first half of the year, which allowed Europe to restock, Shell's Chief Financial Officer said LNG markets could tighten again after the summer. (Reuters/NGI)

NG momentum basis the DC chart is positive as the spot futures currently are well above the prior 4 sessions' lows. Market commentary suggested that bulls " simply sought to defend $3", hence the rally seen Thursday. The prior sessions' lows provide the support points we see at 3.011-3.014 and then 2.972. Resistance lies at 3.140-3.145 and then at 3.186-3.187.

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This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

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