Natural Gas Update August 27,2025

Overview

Natural Gas--October NG is up 7.5 cents
October gas futures are up slightly as demand is back below normal with cool weather forecast while a dip in production and recovery in LNG supply on the day are supportive.

NG prices pulled back Tuesday morning in what may have been a reaction to news of a train at Cheniere's Corpus Christi LNG plant being down. The LNG plant is said to have been only "pulling' 1/2 of its usual amount.  LSEG data showed the plant pulling 1.1 BCF/d, down from its usual 2.4 BCF/d.

Henry Hub next day cash gas Tuesday morning was quoted 2.810 / 2.840. This was versus September futures printing 2.700/2.704 and October futures printing 2.813-2.814at the time. The September futures discount at -12 / -13 cents was wide, versus the -6.7/-6.8 cents differential seen late last week. This wide differential seems to emphasize the market's feeling of lower demand going forward as summer comes to a weak end.

Temperatures are expected to run up to 25 degrees below average from the Plains to the Midwest — and even reach into parts of the South. (Weather Channel)

Comment seen Tuesday : " Longer-term shifts—think LNG exports or new infrastructure—could eventually inject fresh energy, but for now, natural gas seems on track for a stretch of calm." Further commentary from Celsius Energy said they see "fundamentals have tightened up some with robust powerburn despite the cooler temperatures, weak Canadian imports, and recovering LNG export demand."

Today is the last trading session for the September NG futures.

Technically, the October NG futures are seeing the daily chart's momentum turning positive from a near oversold condition. We have attached a weekly chart showing that in 3 of the past 4 years, the NG spot futures bottomed in mid to late August. The DC chart will have a more positive look tomorrow when October becomes the spot futures, gaining several cents from the expiring September contract.  For now, October NG sees support at the low seen Monday of 2.738. Resistance lies at 2.866-2.869, which has been tested with a high of 2.875. Next resistance then is seen at 2.911-2.912.

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This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

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