Natural Gas Update August 28,2025

Overview

Natural Gas--NG is down 2.3 cents
October futures are down slightly today after the strong up move upon September's expiration yesterday, that was seen as boosted by short covering and "strong LNG export flows" over 16 BCF/d, as per news wire commentaries. The overnight price range for October futures so far is narrow. The backdrop of overall shoulder season weak weather demand is seen keeping a lid on NG prices.

The EIA storage data due out today is seen as a build of 27 to 28 BCF as per WSJ & Bloomberg surveys. This compares to last year's build of 35 BCF and the 5 year average build of 38 BCF.

The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants has risen to 15.9 BCF/d so far in August, up from 15.6 BCF/d in July. That compares with a record monthly high of 16.0 BCF/d in April. (Reuters)

LSEG forecasts natural gas demand will fall from 107.1 BCF/d this week to 104.3 BCF/d. These forecasts are up a total of 0.9 BCF/d from those seen Monday. 

The NOAA forecasts below normal temperatures for the MidCon and Atlantic seaboard in the 6-10 day period. Also, they say that the Nov-Dec-Jan seasonal temperature outlook is currently showing above normal temperatures as well. New Mexico and West Texas are showing the highest probability of being above normal for the core of the winter.

On Wednesday, LSEG estimated 155 cooling degree days (CDD) over the next two weeks, higher than the 131 CDDs estimated on Aug. 26. The norm for this time of year is 135 CDDs.

Celsius Energy wrote Wednesday:" Net natural gas imports from Canada have weakened over the past 1-2 weeks and are now trailing year-ago levels by -1.2 BCF/d, a reversal from the first half of the year when imports consistently topped 2024 by 1-2 BCF/d. This has helped to blunt the gain in production.

Bloomberg data showed U.S. gas output Wednesday at 107.68 BCF/d versus output of 107.49 on Aug. 20 and down from August 11th data showing output of 109.05 BCF/d.

Wednesday's expiration in September futures was firm and we suspect some investors/traders may have been short going into the expiration, as the September rallied to the point where the September/October spread printed flat in the closing range/last half-hour of the September contract. The spread settled Tuesday at -7.3 cents. Wednesday the spread settled at -1.6 cents, although the last traded price was -3.2 cents.

Technically the NG spot futures have positive momentum basis the DC chart. There is no rollover gap from the expiration of the September contract. Supportive for the NG spot futures is the move being seen today and yesterday over a downtrend resistance line on the DC chart off the June high. That downtrend resistance line intersects today at 2.848. There is currently a double top on the DC chart from yesterday/today at 2.906/2.904. Above that resistance comes in at 2.966-2.972. Support lies below at 2.774-2.777.

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This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC