Natural Gas Update August 8,2025

Overview

Natural Gas--NG is down 2.0 cents
NG futures are lower, stuck in the recent range as prices are being buffeted by the opposing forces of strong gas production versus recent and upcoming weather demand and stronger recent feedgas volumes to LNG plants.

Thursday's pullback off the highs after the bullish EIA data may have been a function of a few things:  1) the contract hit resistance at 3.140-3.145--the high was 3.148 (2) next day Henry Hub cash prices were below 3.100, with a trade near 3.05 seen midday. Thus given the flat differential seen between HH cash and the spot NG futures recently,  the September futures fell back to the 3.05 area.  (3) the index fund roll started Thursday, which may have put some pressure on September futures, as funds sell out of the September contract and roll length forward to November. (4) some profit taking may have occurred as the contract rose Thursday to a high 25 cents above Monday's low. (5) cooler forecasts for later in August were seen.

Thursday's EIA storage number showed a build of 7 BCF, which was 6 to 11 BCF better than forecast. Total storage stood at 3.130 TCF, which is -137 BCF/-4.19 % versus last year and +173 BCF/+5.85 % versus the 5 year average. A Reuters survey of analysts seen Thursday is saying that U.S. natural gas storage is on track to end the April-October summer injection season at a two-year low of 3.830 TCF. This is less than the data we shared yesterday that saw estimates for end of season inventories between 3.905 and 3.930 TCF.

Forecaster Vaisala said Thursday that the Global Forecast System weather model shifted cooler for the eastern half of the US for August 17-21.

Total feedgas flows to U.S. LNG export terminals are today estimated down at 15.53 BCF/d after rising to 16.34 BCF/d on Aug. 6 and just below record levels seen in April, Bloomberg shows.
But, overall average natural gas deliveries to U.S. LNG export terminals increased 0.9 BCF/d on the week to 16.3 BCF/d, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights.

Technically, momentum remains positive for the NG futures basis the DC chart. Resistance for the spot futures comes in at 3.140-3.148. Support lies at 2.945-2.955 and then at this week's low at 2.895.

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This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

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