Natural Gas Update December 12,2025

Overview

Natural Gas--NG is down 13.0 cents at $4.101
NG futures are making a fresh low for the recent selloff as an unsupportive weather outlook later in the month has driven selling. The selloff has come even in the face of bullish EIA storage data seen Thursday. The selloff has also been driven by a fall in the cash Henry Hub price, which was down Thursday $1 from the price seen last Friday.

Forecaster Atmospheric G2 said Thursday that forecasts shifted warmer across the southern and eastern US for December 16-20, and the outlook has trended warmer for most of the US for December 21-25.

The EIA data seen Thursday showed a draw of 177 BCF, beating all expectations. This was the best draw for the period seen in the past 6 years. Total gas inventories fell to 3.746 TCF. This is -28BCF/-0.74% versus last year, but still +103 BCF/+2.83% versus the 5 year average. Next week's number is seen as a draw of 159 to 180 BCF. Last year saw a draw of 134 BCF and the 5 year average is -96 BCF for next week's number. "Based on early projections for the next two reports, inventories are likely to fall into a deficit relative to the five-year average before the end of the month," as per one investor. But he adds : "However, the second half of the month is shaping up to be much warmer, which would significantly reduce the storage impact of subsequent weeks."

The Henry Hub (HH) cash next day natural gas fell Thursday midday to $4.150. That is down from a quote of $4.55 / $4.61 seen Wednesday mid-morning and a price seen last Friday of $5.175/$5.195. The HH next day cash fell Thursday to a discount of about 7 cents to the spot NG futures ---having flipped from the 6 cents premium cash had Tuesday over the spot NG futures.

The TTF spot futures have a double bottom from Wednesday/Thursday at 26.535/26.530 Euro/Mwh, equating to $9.11/MMBtu . As of December 9, gas storage in Europe was 72% full, compared to the 5-year seasonal average of 81% full for this time of year. News reports see cargoes being diverted away from Europe. An LNG cargo originating from Qatar diverted from Belgium to India, according to a Bloomberg report. Egypt has diverted at least two LNG cargoes in early December, easing supply constraints in NWE, Platts said.

LSEG on Thursday lowered their gas demand forecast for this week and next by 0.9 BCF/d from those seen the day before. LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would slide from 145.4 BCF/d this week to 143.8 BCF/d next week.

Average gas flows to the eight large U.S. LNG export plants have risen to 18.7 BCF/d so far this month, up from a monthly record high of 18.2 BCF/d in November. US LNG feedgas demand is steady today at 18.58 BCF/d today compared to a record high of 19.13 BCF/d on Dec. 5. (Market News)

US gas output has also reached a fresh monthly high; LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states has risen to 109.7 BCF/d so far in December, up from a monthly record high of 109.6 BCF/d in November. US domestic natural gas production was estimated at 113.37 BCF/d yesterday compared to the 30-day average over 112.44 BCF/d, according to BNEF.

Technically Thursday's settlement price saw NG spot futures having fallen by 20.0% from the high settlement seen last Friday. The NG January daily chart has a mean reversion setup from Thursday's settlement below the lower bollinger band. Support for the spot NG futures at 4.131-4.140 has been broken. Next best support seen lies at 4.070-4.073. Resistance comes in at the overnight high at 4.257-4.259. Momentum is negative for the NG.

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