Natural Gas Update December 15,2025

Overview

Natural Gas-- NG is down 4.3 cents at $4.070
Late December warmth is pressuring NG prices even as forecasts over the weekend added heating demand from Friday's forecast. Yet, NatGasWeather still shows days 3-15 having Low to Very Low demand after days 1-2's High demand. Celsius Energy put Sunday's daily gas storage withdrawal at over 30 BCF, which they said was a new seasonal high.

US LNG feedgas demand is down 0.228 BCF/d today to 17.47 BCF/d compared to an average of 18.3 BCF/d over the previous week.  (Market News)

US domestic natural gas production is estimated 0.245 BCF/d higher today at 113.17 BCF/d yesterday compared to the 30-day average of 112.76 BCF/d, according to BNEF.

This week's EIA gas storage data is seen as a draw of 164 to 173.3 BCF. This compares to last year's draw of 131 BCF and the 5 year average draw of 96 BCF.

The Baker Hughes gas rig count fell by 2 units in Friday's report.

TTF prices in Europe have steadied after making a double bottom last week at 26.530/26.535 Euro/Mwh. Currently, the spot TTF futures are printing 27.540 Euro/Mwh (= $9.49/MMBtu).  European gas storage was down to 71.29% full on Dec. 10th, according to GIE data, amid small net withdrawals this week. The previous 5-year seasonal average is 80.9% full. One analyst cited by Reuters says : Physical gas players are buying the TTF dip, building record net longs as commercial operators stock up on cheap feedstock, cheaper winter hedges, or a chance to lock in margins on physical operations, while hedge funds extended their net short position recently.

In Asia, Energy Aspects says:  "Ongoing robust global LNG loadings and mild weather continue to put downward pressure on Asian LNG prices."  But, they added that softer prices have encouraged some Indian buyers to increase purchases, as well as buying interest from Chinese importers. This spot demand, however, is mostly limited to opportunistic price-sensitive demand, with northeast Asian utilities largely well stocked, said the Argus head of LNG pricing. (Reuters)

Technically the January NG settled over the lower bollinger band Friday, thus confirming the mean reversion setup from Thursday. NG spot futures see support at 4.035/4.036 and then at 3.987. Resistance lies at the overnight high at 4.217-4.222 and then at 4.264-4.266. Momentum remains negative basis the DC chart.

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