Natural Gas Update December 16,2025

Overview

Natural Gas--NG is down 10.2 cents at $3.910
NG futures remain under pressure from the late December warmer weather picture.

The sell off in NG futures comes even as the storage surplus to the 5 year average has turned to a deficit in the past day, although that will be short-lived as temperatures rise and storage withdrawals will lessen. Celsius Energy says that the turn to a storage deficit versus the 5 year average was the first such on a daily basis since April 25th.

Meteorologists forecast weather across the country would remain mostly warmer than normal through December 30. (Reuters) Monday's forecasts shifted generally warmer for Dec. 25-29: Atmospheric G2.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would slide from 145.2 BCF/d this week to 131.6 BCF/d next week. These forecasts from Monday were up a total of 8.2 BCF/d from those seen Friday.

On the CME Monday, the TTF February Euro 29 / 34 call spread went in a 1 by 1.5 ratio at a cost of 0.38 Euro. In other options, in the March April NG/LN CSO, the $1.00 call traded 9,500 contracts worth at a cost of 1.3 cents. The open interest on the CME in this option strike fell by 3,625 contracts. The March April 2026 futures spread settled Monday at +2.7 cents. 

NGI data shows that the current January 2026 futures are priced over the average of the prior 10 years. $4.00 Henry Hub gas is still well ahead of typical January pricing. NGI’s January Henry Hub Bidweek index between 2016 and 2025, when expressed on a real basis (in September 2025 dollars), has a median value of $3.585. Next day Henry Hub cash fell to $3.830/3.930 Monday at midday; this was in line with Friday's value of $3.910. The cash/futures differential remained near 20 cents, favor of the futures.

The Golden Pass LNG plant is getting much closer to LNG production, now seen happening in early 2026 with its Train 1 likely to add 0.8 BCF/d in feed gas demand. (NGI)

Technically NG has fallen to its lowest value since the end of October. NG spot futures settled lower Monday for the 5th session in the last 6. Momentum remains negative, although it is getting close to being oversold. Support below comes in at 3.811-3.818. Resistance is seen at 4.060-4.067.

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This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

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