Natural Gas Update December 17,2025

Overview

Natural Gas---NG is up 12.6 cents at $4.012
NG spot futures are higher today with several analysts suggesting the selloff was overdone--for now. The weather forecast has added back some demand since the large drop in HDD's seen Tuesday.

NatGasWeather has added back 15.4 HDD's in the GFS weather model over the last 2 weather forecasts, after seeing a drop of 22 HDD's in the prior forecast. On Tuesday, before the latest forecasts, forecaster Atmospheric G2 said that much warmer-than-normal temperatures are expected over the western and southern US for December 21-25.  Also, forecasts shifted warmer across most of the US for December 26-30.

Tuesday's MNI data showed feedgas demand at 18.14 BCF/d, trailing the 30-day moving average of 18.37 BCF/d.

European TTF gas prices have steadied in recent days. The spot futures contract has a sideways price pattern to the last almost 2 weeks worth of trading. There is a double bottom at 26.530-26.535 from last week. ING offers the following commentary re the European gas market: forecasts show that weather is set to turn colder than usual later in the month, which should provide some support to prices. Particularly when you consider that EU gas storage is below average, at 69% full at the moment vs. a 5-year average of 78%. The record-large gross short that investment funds hold in TTF continues to pose a risk. Momentum basis the TTF DC chart has turned positive since making the low 1 week ago.

Tuesday's settlement put the drop in spot NG futures at 26.5% in the past 7 sessions since the multi year high was made. Technically NG spot futures are oversold basis the DC chart. Support for the spot futures is seen at 3.916-3.920 and then at 3.873-3.877 via the January 60 minute chart. Resistance comes in at 4.082 then at 4.145-4.146.

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