Natural Gas Update December 29,2025

Overview

Natural Gas-- February NG is up 4.0 cents at $3.917
NG futures are higher after having a see-saw move so far today. The initial rally last night was seen due to some addition of heating demand from the American weather model. But, with next day cash prices well below the expiring January futures and the boost in demand seen as small, prices eased back to then trade lower.

These are comments seen the past day regarding weather predictions:  NatGasweather's headline for today reads: Weekend data trends colder and prices gap higher. But a still too warm of a patterns leads to selling..... Celsius Energy added Sunday:" Over the weekend, the near-term temperature outlook didn’t change too much, initially losing some GWDDs before regaining some today (Sunday). After an early-week spike, look for GWDDs to settle at or just below the 5 year average into early January. However, by the second week of January, a blocking pattern could set up which would favor colder temperatures and an upward revision of this forecast. " ......The 15 day weather forecast shows days 2 through 8 with moderate go high demand, but days 9 thru 15 with moderate demand....NatGasweather adds : "The weekend weather data trended colder, especially Dec 29-31 and where more than 15 HDDs were added for these days. It wasn’t a surprise the weekend weather data added demand since it was the warmest of the past 50-years for that period going into the weekend. But the pattern is still much too warm the next 7-days and also for Jan 1-5."  Average Lower 48 temperatures are forecast below normal in the coming days before gradually trending back above normal by around Dec. 5. NOAA 6-14 day forecast shows warm weather across most of the country except the north-eastern area.

The EIA gas storage data is to be released today at Noon for the week ended Friday Dec.19. Forecasts are calling for a draw of 169 to 170 BCF. That compares to last year's draw of 98 BCF and the 5 year average draw of 110 BCF.

US domestic natural gas production is estimated today at 113.7 BCF/d compared to the 30-day average of 113.56 BCF/d, according to BNEF data. While, LNG feedgas is seen today at 18.71 BCF/d; This is up from Friday's volume of 18.18 BCF/d and the lower figure of 17.33 BCF/d seen last Wednesday. (Market News)

The January NG futures expire today. One notable element for January NG pricing is the steep premium that the contract is holding currently over further back months. January is currently 53.0 cents over February and about $1.13 over the April contract.

Technically, NG futures have positive momentum. The February contract looks to be building a possible inverted head and shoulders pattern basis its daily chart, which suggests a possible move to as high as $4.47. The bottom at $3.47 provides the tip of the head with the shoulder line being the resistance areas at $3.97. Thus a break of the resistance/shoulder area at the 3.97 area could see a projected 50 cent up move to $4.47. Resistance for the February contract at 3.976-3.979 was almost tested with the session high of 3.975, which was seen in the opening moments of trading last night. Above that resistance lies at 4.042-4.045. Support comes in at 3.727-3.733.

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