Natural Gas Update February 10,2026

Overview

Natural Gas--NG is down 2.1 cents at $3.117
NG futures are lower having slipped overnight to a fresh low since Jan. 16. Weather demand in the near term remains on the weaker side with the latest forecast showing a slight drop in the European weather model's Total Degree Days. As NGI said yesterday: "traders (have) wagered that winter’s strongest demand has come and gone."

The Henry Hub (HH) next day cash versus spot futures premium has eroded--having fallen Monday to flat. The HH was quoted early in the day at $3.17/$3.24 with the March futures printing $3.179. The cash had held a premium for the last 2 plus weeks. On Friday, the cash to futures premium had been about 68 cents. Prices at Henry Hub average $3.225/MMBtu on Monday, down $1.190, per NGI’s MidDay Price Alert.

Early estimates seen for this week's EIA gas storage data are calling for a draw of 260.10 to 273 BCF. This compares to last year's draw of 111 BCF and the 5 year average draw of 146 BCF.

A whole host of fences traded in the March and April options on Monday. The March $3.25 call was bought versus selling of the $3.00 put at a cost of 3.2 cents with 0.80 delta futures sold at $3.13. The April $4.25 call was sold against which the $2.75 put was bought at a cost of both 5.5 and 5.7 cents with 0.40 delta April futures bought at $3.11. The April $4.00 call was sold and the $3.00 put was bought. One trade of which happened at a cost of 16.5 cents with 0.60 delta April futures buys at $3.07. One other trade of which was seen at a cost of 13.7 cents with 0.60 delta futures buys at $3.11. The October $3.00 put was sold twice against buying of one $3.85 put at a cost of 17.25 cents. The October futures settled at $3.613. Thus the $3.85 put was 23.7 cents in the money. 

Technically the DC chart for NG is showing momentum getting near oversold. Support at 3.112-3.114 was pierced overnight. Next support below lies at 3.051 and then at 3.007. Does the market have the willpower and reason to test below $3.00? Resistance comes in at 3.241-3.242--which is below the bottom of the gap created over the weekend that goes from 3.265 to 3.387.

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