Natural Gas Update February 11,2026

Overview

Natural Gas--NG is down 1.1 cents at $3.104
NG futures are lower as near term weather demand has weakened.

14-day accumulated Gas-Weighted Degree Days (GWDDs) as forecast by the GFS and ECMWF have continued to relentlessly trend lower, now far below the 5-year average, as per Celsius Energy commentary. National demand is likely to be light through Friday, "as most of the U.S. experiences mild to nice temperatures with highs of 40s-70s," NatGasWeather.com said in a note.

Celsius Energy analysis shows that gas in storage dropped below 2,100 BCF yesterday. This is 7 days earlier than the 5 year average (Feb 17) & 5 days earlier than last year (Feb 15). Look for storage to drop below 2,000 BCF by next Thursday, Feb 19, which would be 2 days later than last year.

The EIA in their monthly STEO issued Tuesday raised their price forecasts in February and March by an average of almost 40% from the January STEO, as they reduced their end of season gas inventories by 8% from last month's forecast on the back of the strong stock draws seen due to the extreme weather in January.  End of March 2026 inventories are now seen at 1.866 TCF; this is down 165 BCF from their January estimate. But, the EIA added that they expect that price increases will moderate as drilling activity drives increases in natural gas production later in the forecast period. The 2026 average price forecast was raised by 85 cents to $4.31. but for 2027 they reduced their price estimate by 21 cents to $4.38. US gas production in 2026 is seen at 110.0 BCF/d, which is up 1.2 BCF/d from the January estimate. In 2027 US gas production is seen at 111.2 BCF/d, which is an increase of 1.5 BCF/d from January's forecast. US gas demand estimates though were also raised, though not by as much as the production ones. in 2026, US gas demand is seen at 91.6 BCF/d, up 1.3 BCF/d from January's data and in 2027 demand is seen at 91.5 BCF/d, up 0.6 BCF/d from last month's figure. 

In LN/NG options on the CME on Tuesday, the April October minus 50 cent put CSO 12,000 contracts traded 14.6 cents. The spread was trading minus 56.5 cents at the time. The trade was mostly a closing of a position as per CME open interest. Also in the April October CSO, the minus 20 cent call traded 0.8 and 1.3 cents in closing out trades. In the March April 2026 CSO's, the +25 cent call traded 5.0 cents. The futures spread settled Tuesday at 8.9 cents. In the March April of 2027 CSO, 2,000 contracts of the +25 cent put traded 24.0 cents, with the futures spread worth +33.0 cents at the time.

Notably in the TTF options on the CME on Tuesday, 1,000 contracts of the April, May and June Euro 21 put options traded at a cost of 0.19 Euro with 0.02 delta futures purchased at Euro 29.00. The April through June strip settled Tuesday at an average price of 29.851 Euro. Technically, the spot TTF futures contract still has a gap to fill above from 34.075 to 34.100 Euro. The contract is trading near 32.60 Euro ( $11.38/MMBTU) this morning with momentum basis the DC chart still somewhat negative. The contract is being pressured by record LNG imports into Europe and forecasts that have "shifted warmer", as per NGI commentary. This comes even as of February 7th, European gas in storage was at 37.1% of capacity, well below last year's level of 49.4%. The 5 year average is 53.82%.

Technically the NG spot futures have just fallen to a fresh low since January 16.  Support at 3.051 has almost been tested wit the current low being 3.055. Next support below lies at 3.007. Resistance above comes in at 3.241-3.242. There is an intraday double top from today's session at 3.164. Momentum basis the DC chart is getting oversold.

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