Natural Gas Update February 12,2026

Overview

Natural Gas--NG is up 11.5 cents at $3.274
NG spot futures are up today, rising into the gap created over the weekend. Prices are being supported by the expectation for a strong draw from gas storage today and by US natural gas  production not returning to pre-storm levels. Strong LNG feedgas demand is likely also supportive.

Today's EIA storage data is seen as a draw of 258 to 264 BCF, as per news wire surveys. This compares to last year's draw of 111 BCF and the 5 year average draw of 146 BCF. The prospect though for the coming weeks data into the end of the month look to be for the deficit to the 5 year average to be reduced. As NGI reports:" Withdrawal pace likely to slow in coming weeks."

Celsius Energy said Wednesday that US natural gas production was 107.4 BCF/d, up "just" 2.0 BCF/d versus a year ago.  Since the storm seen in late January, the production increase versus one year ago has remained well below the increase seen during November and December, when the year over year increase was near or greater than 5.0 BCF/d.

NGI commentary re feed gas demand reads as follows:" Feed gas nominations to U.S. LNG terminals have reportedly swung back with a vengeance, according to pipeline data, indicating exporters could be looking to make up for lost time during the winter storm. Wood Mackenzie estimated nominations could reach 19.3 BCF/d Wednesday and average 18.7 BCF/d in the coming seven days. The firm noted the persistent rise over the past few days “has been driven by the largest feedgas nominations we have ever seen” at East Coast terminals, but cautioned that those numbers could be revised in a later cycle."

On Wednesday, the next day Henry Hub cash gas price managed to regain some value versus the spot March NG futures. The cash premium was seen at about 9 cents mid-morning, up from the flat price differential seen Monday.

In the LN/NG options traded on the CME Wednesday, most prominent to us were trades in the March, May and October months. 7,000 contracts of the March $4/$5 call spread traded 2.7 cents with 0.09 delta March futures sales at $3.16. The March $4 strike saw the position being opened, while the $5.00 call position was being closed. Further in the March options, the $3.50/$3.75 call spread traded with the $2.75 put being also sold at a net cost of 0.6 cents with 0.2 delta March futures sales at $3.16. In the May options, in an opening of the position, the $4.00 call traded 9.0 cents with 0.18 delta May futures sales at $3.09. In the October options, the $3.00/$2.25 put spread traded 17.5 cents with additional sales of the $5.00 call at 15.5 cents for a net cost of 2.0 cents.  

Technically, the NG futures have a double bottom from the prior 2 sessions at 3.055/3.061. We see support above that possible at 3.147-3.155. Resistance lies at 3.326-3.328 and then at the filling of the gap from the weekend up at 3.387.

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This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

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