Natural Gas Update February 13,2026

Overview

Natural Gas---NG is down 7.8 cents at $3.139.
NG prices are lower today weighed down by a disappointing EIA gas storage number seen Thursday and the prospect for less heating demand as temperatures are seen warming up next week.

The Commodity Weather Group said Thursday that above-average temperatures were expected across the Midwest and South through February 21. Average Lower 48 states temperatures are forecast to rise above normal over the coming week to a peak around Feb. 18 before dropping to below normal across Feb. 21-26, according to GFS.

The EIA gas storage data seen Thursday came in weaker than forecast with a draw of 249 BCF. This was 9 to 16 BCF less than news wire survey estimates. Total storage fell to 2.214 TCF. This is 97 BCF (-4.20%) versus last year's level and -130 BCF (-5.55%) versus the 5 year average. The coming weeks will see the current deficits in storage reduced versus last year and versus the 5 year average --possibly even return to surpluses. 

Cash prices at Henry Hub averaged $3.425/MMBtu on Thursday, up 18.0 cents, as per NGI’s MidDay Price Alert. But, NGI’s spot natural gas National average price fell by 2.0 cents to $2.955.

Top business leaders urged the European Union on Wednesday to act urgently to bring down energy prices, saying that was key for European industries to be able to compete with the United States and China. The loss of cheap Russian gas imports following Moscow’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine hiked bills for many energy-intensive industries. Congested power grids, national taxes and the EU’s CO2 emissions price also contribute to power prices – which for industries in Europe are more than double those in the United States and China. The EU’s electricity system is designed so that the last power plant needed to meet total demand sets the power price. Often, that is a natural gas plant – leaving many consumers highly exposed to gas prices, which are significantly higher in Europe than in the U.S.  (Reuters)

The March put options on the CME were active on Thursday. The March $3.20/$3.00 put spread traded 9.6 cents with 0.18 delta March futures bought at $3.23. The March $3.00/$2.75 put spread traded more actively,  with prices ranging from 5.1 to 5.6 cents cost. The March $2.75 put's open interest rose by over 11,000 contracts Thursday. The March April CSO also was active with the plus 25 cent call trading 4.5 cents in what looks to have been a closing of a position. The plus 10 cent/flat put spread in the March April CSO traded 4.8 cents. The $1.00/$2.00 call spread in the March April CSO traded 0.4 cents. The March April futures spread settled Thursday at +13.2 cents.

Technically the March futures have oversold momentum basis the DC chart, while the March daily chart's momentum is getting near oversold. Support for the spot futures is seen at this week's lows at 3.055/3.061. Resistance comes in at 3.280-3.288.

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