- Liquidity Natural Gas Daily
- Posts
- Natural Gas Update February 17,2026
In partnership with
February 24, 2026
Overview
Natural Gas--NG is down 16.3 cents ( from Friday's settlement) at $3.080
NG futures are still lower versus Friday's settlement but well off the low seen Sunday evening. Weather forecasts have added back a decent amount of HDD's in the latest runs.
The GFS 6z (US 2 AM time) 15day forecast added 22 HDD nationally driven primarily by early March. But, a weather run from just a few minutes ago (8AM EST) saw some HDD dropped.
The overnight rally comes even as gas inventories are seen rising back to a surplus versus last year's level, and is also seen possibly flipping to a surplus versus the 5 year average. Celsius Energy reports that by the end of the week, the surplus to last year will be in excess of +100 BCF. Last week's EIA data had the deficit to last year at 97 BCF as of February 6th.
Lower 48 states dry gas production is currently estimated 0.47 BCF/d lower today at 114.37 BCF/d; but, that is up from an average of 114.1 BCF/d over the previous week, BNEF shows.
The WSJ had an article mentioning how the updated outlook from the NOAA's Climate Prediction Center forecasts a potential El Nino climate setting in next fall/winter, which could bring a mild winter for much of the U.S., thus limiting demand. "Market participants appear to be hedging some downside risk as they extrapolate that the chances of the weather pattern and its associated mild temperatures materializing should remain high into the winter months," says Gelber & Associates in a note. The NOAA's report gave a 61% for El Nino to set in beginning in September.
The Desk's latest survey of end of March 2026/EOS gas in storage rose by 79 BCF to 1.748 TCF. That compares to the EIA's estimate of 1.866 TCF from this month's STEO. The Desk's survey of the end of October 2026 gas in storage rose by 43 BCF to 3.780 TCF. That compares to the EIA's estimate of 3.988 TCF from this month's STEO.
This week's EIA gas storage data is seen as a draw of 150 to 154 BCF, as per early estimates. This compares to last year's draw of 182 BCF and the 5 year average draw of 159 BCF.
A colleague pointed put how there are a whole host of open March put options positions. Are these going to act as a magnet for the spot futures in the near term? The NG/LN options expire next Tuesday February 24. The $3.00 strike had 59,774 options open as of Friday's close. The $2.75 puts had 48,027 contracts open. The $3.25 put strike had 27,354 options open.
Technically the NG futures have closed the gap to 3.114 that was created over the weekend. DC chart based momentum is neutral at an oversold level, while the March daily chart has momentum that is near oversold and near turning positive. NG futures have tested resistance at 3.164-3.167 this morning with a high of 3.171. The next best resistance comes in at 3.246-3.249. Support is likely at 3.018-3.020. The low from Sunday evening is 2.968.
The EIA's weekly gas storage report will be released at its normal hour on Thursday at 10:30 AM (EST).
Enjoyed this article?
Subscribe to never miss an issue. Daily updates provide a comprehensive analysis of both the fundamentals and technical factors driving energy markets.
Click below to view our other newsletters on our website:
Better prompts. Better AI output.
AI gets smarter when your input is complete. Wispr Flow helps you think out loud and capture full context by voice, then turns that speech into a clean, structured prompt you can paste into ChatGPT, Claude, or any assistant. No more chopping up thoughts into typed paragraphs. Preserve constraints, examples, edge cases, and tone by speaking them once. The result is faster iteration, more precise outputs, and less time re-prompting. Try Wispr Flow for AI or see a 30-second demo.
Disclaimer
This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC
Reply