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- Natural Gas Update February 19,2026
February 24, 2026
Overview
Natural Gas---NG is up 5.1 cents at $3.062
NG spot futures are up slightly --holding over $3.00, after falling Wednesday to a 4 month low. A boost in HDD's in the prior forecast is supporting NG today, as are likely the strength in energies and the TTF contract. But, the overall tone still is of a warmer weather pattern as we head to the end of winter.
This morning Market News commentary re the weather says :"HDDs now coming within the normal toward the end of the 2-week GFS forecast period for the Lower US 48 states instead of sliding off precipitously in cities like New York and Philadelphia." The market rallied back over $3 in the afternoon Wednesday as a slightly cooler forecast was offered--especially in the 8-14 day outlook, as per Celsius Energy commentary. Although, the Commodity Weather Group on Wednesday said above-normal temperatures are expected across the eastern half of the US through February 22, while mostly normal seasonal weather is expected for the following week.
The EIA gas storage data due out today at its regular hour (10:30 AM EST) is seen as a draw of 149 to 152 BCF as per WSJ & Bloomberg surveys. This compares to last year's draw of 182 BCF and the 5 year average draw of 151 BCF.
The TTF European spot futures have gapped higher today. The increased tension between the US and Iran has lifted the TTF value today, given concerns about LNG shipping in the region. Gas markets are increasingly worried about shipments through the Strait of Hormuz—especially from Qatar, the second-largest exporter globally. News wire accounts though mention some of the TTF upside seen today may be mitigated by a milder weather forecast across Europe and stronger renewable output in Germany. Yet, European storage remains very low. EU gas storage sites were last 32.5 per cent full, compared with 43.3 per cent at the same time last year, Gas Infrastructure Europe data showed. (Reuters/WSJ) The gap created today goes from 31.980 to 32.100.
Technically the spot NG futures continue to have momentum that is oversold basis the DC and March daily charts. The question is whether the market still has the urge to test and stay below $3? Support is likely, we believe, at the prior 2 sessions' lows at 2.968 and then at 2.922. Resistance comes in at 3.147-3.149 and then at 3.242-3.249.
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This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
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