- Liquidity Natural Gas Daily
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- Natural Gas Update February 20,2026
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February 24, 2026
Overview
Natural Gas--April NG is +0.1 cents at $2.947
NG futures are unchanged now after spending much of the overnight in slightly negative territory. Prices are supported somewhat as cold weather grips much of the US over the next few days and the latest 15 day forecast is said to have added demand. As one colleague says : "natural gas is in search of a catalyst." Yesterday's EIA storage data disappointed and next week's storage number is seen as very weak.
The latest GFS 6z ( 1 AM EST) run's 15 day forecast is 31 HDD higher nationally driven by early March. (Market News) The Commodity Weather Group said Thursday that forecasts shifted colder, with below-average temperatures expected in the western US through February 23.
The EIA storage number issued Thursday disappointed somewhat as inventories fell by 144 BCF, which was 5 to 8 BCF below the Bloomberg and WSJ forecasts. Total storage fell to 2.070 TCF. This was still 59 BCF (2.77%) below year ago level and 123 BCF (5.61%) below the 5 year average. But, next week's storage data will show a draw that is significantly below the 5 year average draw. Celsius Energy is forecasting a draw of 56 BCF, which would be 112 BCF less than the 5 year average.
Estimates for end of season natural gas inventories varied in comments seen Thursday. Market News suggests total storage to be between 1.68 and 1.72 TCF. An energy advisor said: "expect inventories to find a seasonal bottom near or above 1.8 TCF in March." The EIA in their STEO this month forecast EOS gas inventories of 1.866 TCF. The Desk last week had a survey estimate of 1.748 TCF.
On Thursday, the Henry Hub next day cash averaged $3.080/MMBtu, up 10.5 cents from Wednesday, NGI’s MidDay Price Alert showed. The Henry Hub cash held a small premium of about 1 cent to the March NG futures prior to the EIA storage data release. This was up from the more so flat differential between next day cash and spot NG futures seen Wednesday.
Yesterday, the October $8.00 call traded over 2,500 contracts at a price of 3.2 cents. This follows a similar amount in the October $8.00 call that was seen traded Wednesday at a price of 2.7 cents. These were new positions, as per CME open interest data. In the April October 6 month CSO, the -40 cent and -50 cent call open interests rose by 5,000 contracts as they traded in a call spread at a price of 3.6 cents.
Technically, yesterday, the spot NG futures saw their lowest settlement since Thursday, Oct. 16, 2025. April NG futures remain oversold basis the daily chart's momentum. April futures see support at the Wednesday low at 2.867-2.868. This is the top of a gap on the daily chart down to 2.766. Support comes in also at 2.793-2.804. Resistance comes in at 3.060-3.065.
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Disclaimer
This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC
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