Natural Gas Update February 23,2026

Natural Gas--April NG is up 3.3 cents at $3.017
NG futures are higher as, over the weekend, European weather models added quite a bit of demand to the 7 to 14 day forecast, although a portion of that increase was given back in the latest European model's run from earlier today, thus making for a much smaller rise in NG prices today.

Over the weekend, the European and GFS weather models differed greatly as to the forecasts for HDD's in the coming 7-14 day period. The GFS has trended milder for the 7-14 day period while the ECWMF has pivoted colder with multiple waves of arctic air east of the Rockies. (Celsius Energy) NatGasWeather showed the European model adding 30 HDDs to the forecast versus Friday, while the GFS model reduced its totals by 15 HDDs. Since that forecast, the European model gave back 21 HDD. Increased wind generation may also reduce some demand near term, with Celsius Energy putting today's displacement of natural gas demand at 0.7 BCF/d versus yesterday.

CFTC data seen Friday showed money managers added to their net short position in futures/options. Net shorts rose by 18,712 contracts to a total of 26,840 contracts. This was achieved through new short positions added in the week ended Tuesday Feb. 17.

Gas storage inventories in Germany are at their lowest level since 2011, as per GIE data. European storage as of February 18 stood at 31.97% versus the 5 year average of 48.6%. (Reuters/Market News)

The Baker Hughes gas rig count was unchanged in Friday's report.

The March LN/NG options expire tomorrow Tuesday 2/24. As of Friday's close, the following options' open interest data from the CME showed the March $2.75 put with 41,704 contracts open, the $3.00 put with 54,252 contracts open, the $3.25 puts with 26,672 contracts open and the $3.50 puts with 25,269 contracts open. In the March  calls, the $3.00 strike has 16,880 contracts open, the $3.25 call with 17,990 contracts open and the $3.50 calls with 30,626 contracts open. Notable in trading of the expiring LN/NG March options were the $3.00 puts. They traded 5,000 contracts worth early in the day at 10.5 cents cost with the March futures worth about $2.97. At midday, with March futures having risen to near $3.14, the March $3.00 put traded 2,000 contracts worth at 4.8 cents.

In Friday's activity on the CME, the March April CSO flat puts traded actively at 1.7 and 1.6 cents. The open interest in the option fell by 7,400 contracts. In the October January CSO,  positions were opened in the -$1.50 and -$2.00 put strikes. A trade was executed in a 1 by 2 ratio, as the -$1.50 put was purchased against selling of 2 of the -$2.00 puts for a net cost of 2.3 cents. 

Technically, the April NG has positive momentum rising from an oversold condition. The high of the session today of 3.150 was seen on the opening last night as prices gapped up to begin with. Support for the April futures is seen at 2.910-2.911, which is the double bottom from Thursday/Friday of last week. Resistance lies at 3.201-3.206.

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