Natural Gas Update February 25,2026

Overview

Natural Gas--April NG is up 4.1 cents at $2.872
NG futures are now higher --after falling to a fresh low overnight for the recent selloff. The March NG futures expire today and yesterday's next day cash was trading near $3.00 ---thus that may be a supportive element in the immediate that could see March rise today, given that the lows of yesterday/today for the March NG were near $2.90. But a sustained rally for the  NG complex seems unlikely without a significant shift in weather demand, which has dropped quite a lot in recent days' forecasts.

Average Lower 48 US states temperatures are forecast to briefly dip below normal in early March before a trend back above normal through the second week of the outlook. The NOAA 6-14 day charts show above normal across most of the country. (Market News) NGI said yesterday: " seasonally mild weather is on tap for most of the country over the next few days." As one commentary read yesterday: "winter is losing its bite".

On Tuesday, we saw a very large amount of April TAS contracts trade on the CME. We suspect that this was an effort to close out positions at the prevailing futures settlement price Tuesday, to lock in that price and close out positions ahead of April becoming the spot futures contract, and with it the higher margin costs.

Natural gas futures open interest on the CME rose Tuesday by 26,493, even with March open interest falling by 11,368 contracts. We see this as mostly new short positions. The increases were in the April through September strip and in the January and February 2027 contracts.

Technically,  April NG has momentum that is trying to turn positive from an oversold condition. Support is seen at 2.793. The gap on the April daily chart goes down to 2.766. Resistance above comes in at 3.020-3.025. 

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This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

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