Natural Gas Update February 26,2026

Overview

Natural Gas --NG is down 7.2 cents at $2.796
NG futures are lower as mid-March weather is seen warming up, with the market thus loosing demand. As one comment read:" benign weather lies ahead." Today's well below average EIA gas storage data is also likely weighing on prices.

The EIA gas storage data due today is seen as a draw of 53 to 55 BCF, as per WSJ and Reuters survey estimates. This compares to last year's draw of 252 BCF and the 5 year average draw of 168 BCF.

The NOAA 6-14 day charts show above normal across most of the country. The latest weather runs have shed more HDD's (Heating Degree days). NatGasWeather shows a loss of 12 HDD's.

Yesterday, Celsius Energy said that US natural gas production had fallen to 107.5 BCF/d after a recovery to higher amounts in early February. Celsius Energy pointed out that Wednesday output was up ("just") 2.2 BCF/d versus year ago level, adding that the rise in feedgas volume for LNG export had risen by 2.6 BCF/d over the year ago level.  BNEF data has NG output today at 112.71 BCF/d, down from Monday's production of 114.29 BCF/d, and comparing to an average of 113.46 BCF/d over the previous week.

NGI’s Spot Gas National Average was up 5.5 cents on Wednesday to $2.345/MMBtu. The Henry Hub cash gas next day price was up 1.5 cents to $3.01, which helped boost the March futures some into expiration.

The March NG futures expiration was quiet. NG futures volume on the CME was light at 333,009 contracts. That may have been partially a function of the 50 minute halt in trading on the CME platform due a technical issue. 

There is a rollover gap as April has become the spot futures contract. The gap goes from the March low yesterday of 2.895 to the session high today for April of 2.891. Today's low in the April futures is the lowest spot NG futures price seen since September 23. The April contract has a gap to fill down to 2.766. Support below that comes in at 2.725 from DC chart data. Resistance lies at 2.930-2.934.

Despite today's drop to a fresh DC low, momentum remains positive. Notable is the narrowing of the DC chart's bollinger bands. Tightening or narrowing Bollinger Bands on a price chart signal a period of low volatility, indicating that the market is consolidating. It indicates that the current low-volatility state is unsustainable. It serves as a precursor to an explosive, high-volatility breakout in either direction.

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