Natural Gas Update February 27,2026

Overview

Natural Gas-- NG is up 4.9 cents at $2.876
NG spot futures are higher today with the latest GFS runs and ECMWF agreeing that March 13-14 could see the HDD count reversing and trending upward back to normal levels.

Thursday's weaker settlement for the April futures was seen as a function of the overall warmer weather being forecasted and the EIA gas storage data showing a very low draw versus the average for the period.

The EIA gas storage data issued Thursday showed a draw of 52 BCF, which was 1 to 3 BCF less than news wire survey forecasts. Total storage fell to 2.018 TCF. This saw the deficit to last year's inventories turn to a surplus of 141 BCF (+7.51%) . The deficit to the 5 year average shrank to 7 BCF (-0.35%). Celsius Energy sees the storage report as somewhat bullish : "  On a temperature-adjusted basis, the withdrawal actually averaged 0.8 BCF/day tight, or bullish, versus the 5-year average, the tightest so far in 2026, likely due to stronger LNG export demand, weaker imports, and a pullback in production." They see the slightly bearish report as being totally due to "unseasonably mild temperatures". 

Celsius Energy reported yesterday that real-time gas storage inventories had fallen below 1.9 TCF. They then posed the question as to whether inventories would fall below 1.8 TCF--they are not sure. Given that they see the next 3 weeks gas storage data drawing a total of 65 BCF, the answer to that question looks to be "no".

Notable options activity in LN/NG trading seen Thursday occurred in the April $2.75/$2.50 put spread. The spread was bought for a cost of 3.4 and 3.6 cents with 0.12 delta futures buys at $2.79. The April $2.70/$2.50 put spread traded in a 1 by 2 ratios for a net cost of 1.7 cents. The June $2.75 put was sold against buying of 2 times as many $2.50 puts for a net cost of 0.5 cents. The June options were opening of new positions.

Technically, yesterday's settlement for the spot futures was the lowest seen since September 22. The DC chart gap to 2.895 from the March expiration was almost filled today with a current high of 2.894. Resistance above that comes in at 2.930-2.934 and then at 3.000-3.006. Support is seen at April lows from this week. Support is likely at 2.818-2.826, which are 3 of the past 4 lows. Support below that is likely at yesterday's low of 2.775. Momentum is neutral.  

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This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

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