Natural Gas Update February 9,2026

Overview

Natural Gas--NG is down 27.2 cents at $3.150
NG spot futures have gapped lower as the 4 to 10 day forecast is showing "markedly below average" GWDD's, as per Celsius Energy, although they add that the 10-14 day period is suggesting the return of cold weather.  NGI commentary today cites the lack of "meaningful" cold failing to materialize in the weather data. The index fund double roll continues today, which may put some pressure on the front month futures as positions get rolled forward to the 3rd month (May). 

CFTC data seen Friday showed money managers turned neutral in their positioning in NG futures/options on the CME in the week ended Tuesday February 3. Money managers basically covered short positions to end up net long 106 contracts as they added 22,076 of net length.

TTF European futures have also gapped lower today. The spot TTF futures are down 7.6% at current, printing near Euro 33/Mwh ( = $11.48/MMBTU). The TTF contract is likely being pressured some by the drop in NG futures, but is also being weighed down by warmer than normal weather forecast over much of Europe in the coming days. "Your annual reminder that Europe gas demand peaks in the 1st week of February on a seasonal basis & descends until the 1st week of September.", as per commentary from one market analyst. Forecasts from banks and commodity analysts point to prices drifting toward €26–€30/MWh by summer, assuming no prolonged cold shock. (coinpaper.com) The fall today in prices come even as European storage levels remain well below the 5 year average and last year's level. As of February 4, European storage facilities was filled to 39.86%, 16.2 percentage points below the five-year average for this date and down from 52.6% a year ago. (caliber.az)

The March LN/NG put option open interest on the CME rose in Friday's activity by over 45,000 contracts. Notable were the over 17,000 contract increases seen in the $3.00 and $2.75 strikes. The $2.75 put traded 3.3 cents cost. It also traded 2.9 cents cost with .08 delta March futures buys at $3.54. The $3.00/$2.75 put spread traded 4.5 and 4.6 cents. The put spread also traded 4.2 cents with 0.10 delta futures purchases at $3.56. The 2 strikes also traded in a 1 by 2 ratio at a cost of 1.3 and 1.4 cents.

The Baker Hughes gas rig count issued Friday added 5 units.

Technically the DC chart's momentum for NG spot futures is getting near oversold. NG spot futures are down 7.75 % today. Support comes in at 3.112-3.114 and then at 3.051. The gap created over the weekend goes from 3.265 to 3.387. Resistance is seen at 3.280-3.288.

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