Natural Gas Update January 12,2026

Overview

Natural Gas-- NG is up 4.1 cents at $3.210
NG futures are higher as weather forecasts turned colder over the weekend. Strong LNG feed gas demand is also supportive. Additionally, the market seems to be leaning fairly heavily on the short side. 

Weather forecasts over the weekend are seen having added some demand, especially in the 6-10 day period, as per Celsius Energy. Celsius adds that there is a hint of arctic air arriving in the 14 to 18 day forecast. The demand for days 1 thru 4 is low, but the 5 thru 15 are showing moderate to high demand, as per NatGasWeather.

Friday's open interest data from the CME showed a sizable increase in NG futures. The increase of 52,958 contracts looks to us to be more so new shorts in the February, March and April contract months.

CFTC data issued Friday showed money managers raised their net short position in futures/options on the CME by 16,444 contracts to a total of 100, 174  contracts in the week ended Tuesday January  6.

TTF spot futures prices in Europe have gapped up today. The spot futures have risen to the highest level in nearly seven weeks, supported by colder weather risks, lower storage levels and rising geopolitical concerns around LNG supply. Recent cold spells have already led to faster storage withdrawals, leaving EU gas inventories about 54.9% full, well below roughly 66.9% at the same time last year.  (trading economics)

The Baker Hughes gas rig count issued Friday showed a drop of 1 unit. 

This week's EIA gas storage data is seen as a draw of 85 to 87.4 BCF. This compares to last year's draw of 227 BCF and the 5 year average draw of 146 BCF.

Technically, the NG spot futures price fell by 12.41% last week. NG spot futures have been down 4 of the past 5 weeks. Friday's NG futures volume was very heavy at 1,078,920 contracts. Does this suggest Friday's low of 3.131 was a near term low? Tops and bottoms are often punctuated by very high volume.

The overnight high of 3.310 in NG spot futures was seen right on the opening of the session last night. Despite the price drop in spot futures seen last week, the rally today has seen momentum trying to turn positive from an oversold condition on the DC chart. On Friday the spot futures reached into a DC chart gap left from October. Support lies at Friday's low, which was 3.131. The DC chart gap from October runs down to 3.024. Resistance comes in at 3.319-3.324 and then at 3.393-3.397.

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