Natural Gas Update January 14,2026

Overview

Natural Gas--NG is down 19.6 cents at $3.223
NG futures prices are lower today as the market is less convinced of colder temperatures showing up later in the forecast and the EIA's STEO did not help that narrative. Storage estimates remain high going forward, even as the nearby forecast is for some cold weather to arrive. A drop today in LNG feedgas demand is likely also weighing on prices.

US LNG feedgas demand is 0.912 BCF/d lower today at 17.2 BCF/d with a drop from Corpus Christi supply due to pipeline maintenance partially offset by a rise to Freeport after a drop yesterday amid reports of lower power. (Market News) Feedgas volume was up above 19 BCF/d a few days ago.

US domestic natural gas production was estimated at 113.05 BCF/d yesterday compared to the 30-day average of 113.53 BCF/d, according to BNEF.

Tuesday's monthly STEO saw the EIA lower their average NG price forecast for 2026 from last month's estimate. The 2026 price forecast was lowered by 55 cents to $3.46. The drop in the 2026 average price forecast is to some degree due to January temperatures being milder than normal, at a time when demand is said to be at its peak, the EIA says. The EIA adds: "Expectations of less natural gas demand have caused prices to drop sharply."  The EIA slashed its Henry Hub price forecast for Q1 to an average of $3.38/mmBtu, down from $4.35 last month. But, the EIA forecasts the the 2027 average price for US natural gas rising to $4.59. The 2027 price rise is seen due to demand growth outpacing supply growth --with demand in 2027 led by increased LNG exports and electric power generation. The End of Season March 2026 inventory estimate has been raised from last month by 35 BCF to 2.031 TCF.

In LN/NG options Tuesday, the February March 1 month CSO  20 / 35 / 50 cent put butterfly traded 3.3 cents cost. Open interest data shows this having been a trade closing positions. Also in the February March one month CSO, the $1.50 call traded 1.5 cents. This was a closing trade, as well. In the April October 6 month CSO, the minus 50 / minus 40 cent call spread traded at a flat price in a 1 for 2 ratio. Additionally, the minus 40 cent call in the April October CSO traded 3.0 cents. 

Technically NG spot futures look incapable of breaking over $3.50 with 2 of the past 3 sessions' highs lying at 3.496/3.499. There is resistance below that at 3.431-3.435; the overnight high is 3.443. Support below is seen at $3.193-3.200 and then at 3.131-3.136. DC chart based momentum has turned neutral--befitting the more range bound nature of recent price action.

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