Natural Gas Update January 20,2026

Overview

Natural Gas--NG is up 81.7 cents ( versus Friday Jan. 16's settlements)
NG spot futures are up almost 36 cents from Monday's 6 PM re-opening as weather forecasts have added even more demand. The February contract is much stronger than the back of the curve on the strength of the forecasts. "Steady" LNG demand and shortcovering are also seen helping boost prices.

The latest weather run seen added more HDD's in both the American and European models. (NG Kneel) The cold snap is seen lasting into February, as per Quantum Commodities.

U.S. domestic natural gas production is estimated 0.129 BCF/d lower today at 112.46 BCF/d and below the 30-day average of 113.3 BCF/d, according to BNEF. Focus will be on potential for any Permian production shut-in as cold weather arrives in the region.

TTF futures are also higher today, fueled by expectations of stronger demand due to colder temperatures and seasonally low inventories. Colder weather across parts of Europe, coupled with an Arctic blast in China, are expected to drive European gas prices higher as benchmarks must remain competitive to secure LNG cargoes. (WSJ) European gas storage is down to 50.36% full on Jan. 17, according to GIE data compared to the previous five-year seasonal average of 65.2% full.

JPMorgan projects Henry Hub prices will average $3.85 per MMBtu in Q1 2026 and $3.74 per MMBtu for the full year, as per a Rigzone report. Enverus expects winter prices to average $3.80 per MMBtu, rising to $4.00–$4.50 by the decade’s end. Fitch Group’s BMI report anticipates $3.90 per MMBtu this year and $4.00 next year.  (economictimes.indiatimes)

Spot NG futures resistance at 3.976-3.983 has been tested today with a high of 3.990. Above that resistance comes in at 4.093-4.096. Support lies at 3.733-3.734 and then at 3.617-3.618. Momentum is positive for the NG.

Enjoyed this article?

Subscribe to never miss an issue. Daily updates provide a comprehensive analysis of both the fundamentals and technical factors driving energy markets.

Click below to view our other newsletters on our website:

Daily Energy Market Update

Ethanol Report

Fuel and Freight Daily Report

Disclaimer

This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC