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- Natural Gas Update January 26,2026
February 3, 2026
Overview
Natural Gas--March NG is up 13.0 cents at $3.739
NG futures have gapped higher over the weekend as the cold in the US is set to linger across much of the country through at least the next 5 days. The cold has already an impact with demand soaring and freeze-offs reducing production.
Almost 10% of US natural gas production is estimated to be offline due to the cold, as per Bloomberg reporting. US natural gas production has plunged by about 10 BCF/d in recent days as frigid weather has frozen pipelines, choking off supply, even as demand for the heating fuel has surged about 18 BCF/d, according to BNEF data. The storm could cut 86 BCF of natural gas production over the next two weeks, Energy Aspects said, noting that the Appalachia region could lose 35 BCF of output. Energy Aspects forecast for a loss of up to 86 BCF issued Friday, was up from their Thursday forecast for a loss of 63.7 BCF on Thursday. (Bloomberg/Reuters)
But, also lower is the feedgas volume for LNG plants. 2 separate sources put the loss of feedgas volume at 4.0 BCF/d Sunday from Friday's amount. (Bluegold Trader/Celsius Energy)
PJM, the largest US power grid, warned that, depending on temperatures, it could set a new all-time winter peak load on Tuesday, January 27. (Reuters) PJM’s region has the highest concentration of data centers in the US and is the focus of concern over how electricity generation can keep pace with the AI-driven demand boom. (Bloomberg)
The LN/NG options for February expire tomorrow Tuesday and the NG futures expire on Wednesday. The open interest figures from the CME for nearby option strikes in the February LN/NG options as of Friday's close is as follows: The $6.00 call has 35,170 contracts open. The $5.50 call open interest is 16,384 contracts. The $6.50 call open interest is 10,515 contracts. On the put side, the $5.00 put is the strike with the most open interest among the nearby options; the open interest is 15,203 contracts.
CFTC data issued Friday showed money managers reduced their net shot positioning in NG futures/options on the CME by 27,035 contracts in the week ended Tuesday Jan. 20. Their total net short position then stood at 77,014 contracts. But, we figure that that total fell more in the 2nd half of the week. ING commentary suggests that the net short position "has been completely erased" in the latter part of the week last week, "given the price action". Unfortunately that data will not be available until Friday, when the CFTC will show money managers' positioning as of Jan. 27.
European TTF spot futures prices rose today to their best value since March 21,2025 on the back of the US NG strength and the drop in LNG feedgas volumes seen the past few days in the US, as well as the support from the low storage level of gas in Europe. The EU sourced 27% of its total gas and LNG imports from the US in 2025, up from 6% in 2021, increasing exposure to US supply disruptions. Gas storage is being drawn down rapidly, with EU inventories at 45.6% compared with 56.5% a year ago, including low levels in Germany (37.5%), France (36.4%), and the Netherlands (31.1%). The 5 year average for storage seasonally is 61%, as per ING reporting. (trading economics.com)
The Baker Hughes gas rig count seen Friday was unchanged.
February NG futures settled up 70.00% on the week last week, which is the largest one week increase seen since the NG futures contract first started in 1990.
The February spot NG futures currently have an intraday double top at $6.288 / 6.293. The gap for the February contract goes down to $5.434--although we suspect support is likely at least at the prior highs at 5.650 / 5.653. Momentum is not overbought for the NG basis either the DC or March daily charts.
Technically the gap in the March NG futures goes down to $3.664. The March contract tested the daily chart upper bollinger band overnight; that band lies at $3.92. Support for the March NG comes in at 3.509-3.519. Resistance is seen at 3.981-3.985, which was tested with the overnight high of 3.997. Above that resistance lies at 4.130.
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Disclaimer
This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
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