Natural Gas Update January 29,2026

Overview

Natural Gas--NG is up 14.0 cents at $3.872
March NG has started as the spot futures today and is higher -following February's strong expiration. The prospect remains for the cold weather to stick around. The latest weather run seen has added some decent demand.

The latest American model weather report added 22 HDD, as per NatGasWeather. 

Today's EIA gas storage data is seen as somewhat bullish relative to the 5 year average. Forecasts are for a draw of  232 to 235 BCF--versus the 5 year average of -208 BCF.

There were several notable trades executed on the CME Wednesday in TTF options. The March 50/60 Euro call spread traded 0.44 Euro with .06 delta futures sales at Euro 36.00. In the March 2026 Euro 50/60 call spread, 1,500 contracts traded 0.44 Euro with .06 delta futures sales at Euro 36.00. March TTF today is trading near Euro 38. The October 2026 through March 2027 strip saw the Euro 31 call bought versus selling of the Euro 36 call and the Euro 23 put. The buyer of the 31 Euro call paid .05 Euro while also selling .33 delta futures at Euro 28.8. The October 2026 through March 2027 strip settled at an average of 29.62 Euro.

There was a sizable increase in open interest in the March April CSO flat put on the CME. The March April flat put traded 3,250 times at 3.5 cents. Smaller volumes traded 3.7 cents as well. The flat put was also sold versus buying of the $1.00 call. The call buyer paid 2.5 cents. The March April 75 cent call open interest fell by 4,000 contracts Wednesday. 2,500 lots traded at 5.5 cents. The March April 50 cent/$1.50 call spread traded 2,000 contracts at 7 cents. The March April futures spread settled at 15.0 cents Wednesday. 6,350 lots of the April through October $2.00 puts traded 1.4 cents. The April $7/$8 call spread traded 2,500 lots at a price of 0.9 cents.

Technically the March NG futures have momentum that is overbought basis its daily chart. The DC chart shows momentum pointing downward, but that seems very logical given the $2.7 loss of value from the premium that the February futures had versus March at Wednesday's settlement. There is a gap on the DC chart up to $5.900.  Today March futures are trying to rise over the highs seen the prior 2 sessions that lie at 3.899/3.916. Upside resistance lies best at 3.985 and then at 4.055. Support is seen at 3.75 and then at the 3.66 area.

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