Natural Gas Update January 30,2026

Overview

Natural Gas--NG is up 10.5 cents at $4.023
NG spot futures are higher now after trading lower overnight as the market took a short breathe and assessed production and the return of much of the output that was lost recently, while also seeing weather forecasts that are not seen warming up dramatically anytime soon. The weather remaining very cold is winning today.

Lower 48 states dry gas production is estimated 0.33 BCF/d lower today at 110.03 BCF/d having recovered from a low of 94.4 BCF/d on Jan. 26, although still below the average of 113.3 BCF/d from the first half of Jan, BNEF shows.

The NGI national spot gas average fell by 46 cents Thursday to $11.04. But, the next day Henry Hub cash price was still seen above $9, as per NGI reporting.

The Commodity Weather Group said Thursday that well-below-average temperatures are expected across the eastern half of the US through early February. Natural gas demand to power furnaces and combat chilly weather could stretch deep into the spring season this year, AccuWeather said in a preliminary outlook. A cold spring is forecast for the Northern portion of the US, while the South may see some early heat. (NGI)

Power demand on the largest U.S. electric grid on Friday is expected to peak at about 141 gigawatts, just shy of the all-time winter record on the PJM Interconnection, according to the operator’s latest seven-day forecast. (Investing.com)

The EIA gas storage data issued Thursday showed a draw of 242 BCF, which was 7 to 10 BCF more than news wire surveys had forecast. Total storage fell to 2.823 TCF. This is still +206 BCF (+7.87%) more than was in storage last year and is greater than the 5 year average by 143 BCF (+5.34%). But, many are focused on the storage data to be issued next Thursday for the period of Jan. 24 through today Jan. 30. Some estimates are even calling for a draw of as high as 400 BCF or more. The record draw for any week was -359 BCF seen in January of 2018. The 5 year average for next week's data is a draw of 190 BCF. Thus, next week's storage data is likely to flip the 5 year average surplus to a deficit.

As would be expected given how wide the February March spread got, Thursday saw notable trades in the CSO options for the March April spread on the CME. The 50 cent/$1.00 CSO call spread traded 4.5 and 5.0 cents in some volume. The $1.00 call trades were closing positions, as per CME data.  3,000 contracts of the March April 25 cent call traded 18.5 cents. The 25 cent call was also bought versus selling of the flat put 5,000 lots worth for the March April options at a cost of 13.0 cents. The March April flat put traded separately on their own at 3.0 cents. The 10 cent/flat put spread traded 6.1 cents in the March April CSO. The March April futures spread settled Thursday at +21.1 cents. One other notable trade seen was the June $8.00 calls traded 2,600 lots at 2.3 cents cost. The June futures settled Thursday at $3.893.

Several liquefied natural gas companies took the unusual step of importing natural gas into the U.S. over the past week in an apparent move to capture record prices that occurred as a brutal winter storm brought bitter cold to much of the country, according to analysts and ship tracking data from financial firm LSEG. Most of the imports came from Trinidad and Tobago. (Reuters)

Technically DC chart based momentum is neutral though near overbought. The spot futures have pierced resistance at 3.981-3.985. Next resistance basis the daily March chart lies at 4.050-4.055 and then at 4.130. Support is seen at 3.811-3.820 and then at 3.770-3.777.

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This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

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