Natural Gas Update January 9,2026

Overview

Natural Gas--NG is down 8.5 cents at $3.322
NG futures are lower now after attempting to rally overnight. Weather forecasts are still not showing sufficient cold temperatures in the near term to spark a significant rally.

Forecaster WSI said Thursday that near-term forecasts show broad swaths of above-normal temperatures across the western and central US over the next week. Meteorologists projected weather across the country would remain mostly warmer than normal through January 23. (Reuters)

The EIA gas storage data issued Thursday showed a draw of 119 BCF, which was at the upper end of forecasts. Total storage fell to 3.256 TCF. This is -123 BCF/-3.64% versus last year's level, but +31 BCF/+0.96 % versus the 5 year average. But, as per Celsius Energy analysis, the next 4 weeks storage data will see the surplus to the 5 year average rise by 381 BCF.

On Thursday, LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 132.0 BCF/d this week to 133.6 BCF/d next week. These forecasts were up a total of 2.0 BCF/d from those seen Wednesday.

Celsius Energy points out that the gas to coal switching that was very evident in 2025 has stopped, with the natural gas share of fossil fuel (coal + gas) consumption now consistently above year-ago levels. Gas-fired generation is expected to rebound with 1.6% growth in 2026 as coal consumption resumes its decline.

Open interest data for NG futures from the CME for Thursday's activity saw an increase of 20,663 contracts. We see this as mostly new shorts, with notable increases in July and October. Those increases fit with notable large futures and option trades seen. 3,000 contracts of the October 2026 January 2027 spread traded at 97.7 cents. 2,000 contracts of the May October 2026 spread traded 58.2 cents. In the options, the July/October 3 month CSO traded with the minus 5 cent call having been sold against buying of the minus 15 cent put at a cost of 0.5 cents. The July October spread settled Thursday at minus 8.7 cents. The October options traded in size. 5,000 lots of the $3.25/$2.75 put spread were purchased against selling of the $4.50 call at a cost of 0.2 cents to the put spread buyer with .43 delta penultimate October futures bought at $3.55.

Technically the DC chart based momentum for NG spot futures is oversold, but at present is neutral. The price pattern for this week shows a sideways range bound commodity, even as support at 3.355-3.357 has been pierced. Next support lies at 3.290-3.296 and then at 3.191-3.200. Resistance comes in at 3.496-3.502, which are the highs from overnight and from Tuesday this week.

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Disclaimer

This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC