Natural Gas Update July 18,2025

Overview

Natural Gas-- NG is up 4.0 cents
NG futures are slightly higher as the hottest weather of the summer is set to hit the US next week.

The EIA gas storage data was right in line with expectations with a build of 46 BCF. Total storage rose to 3.052 TCF. This is +178 BCF/+6.19%  versus the 5 year average, but -156 BCF/-5.11% versus last year. The market seemed to take the storage data as a slight negative given that it was above the 5 year average injection of 41 BCF. Next week's data is seen as a build of 39 to 41 BCF as per early estimates. This compares to last year's build for the period of 20 BCF and the 5 year average build of 30 BCF. Celsius Energy believes that the surplus to the 5 year average will rise to +200 BCF in the coming weeks. 

Meteorologists forecast the weather in the Lower 48 US states would mostly remain hotter than normal through at least August 1, with the hottest days of the summer expected next week. (Reuters) Forecaster Vaisala said forecasts remain above normal for the July 22-26 period across the US, with highs in the mid-90s expected in the middle of the country and in the east for the second half of the period. (Barchart)

NG production remains robust with LSEG saying yesterday that average gas output in the Lower 48 has risen to 107 BCF/d so far in July, up from a monthly record high of 106.4 BCF/d in June. On July 9, LSEG said that July output had averaged 106.7 BCF/d so far.

On Thursday, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would slide from 110 BCF/d this week to 107.5 BCF/d next week. These forecasts were up 0.1 BCF/d total versus Wednesday's estimates.

The EU sanctions also have targeted the Nord Stream 2 pipeline between Russia and Germany, but the TTF gas futures reaction today showing an unchanged spot futures price signals that the sanctions will have little effect, given that the flow on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline never entered service.
 
At current there is a double bottom on the NG spot futures from yesterday/today at 3.511 / 3.513. Below that next support is seen at 3.453-3.454. Upside resistance lies at 3.629-3.635 and then at 3.738-3.742. Momentum remains positive for the NG basis the DC chart.

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