- Liquidity Natural Gas Daily
- Posts
- Natural Gas Update July 29,2025
July 29, 2025
Overview
Natural Gas-- September NG is up 7.8 cents
NG prices are higher today rebounding from a test of $3.00 yesterday in the expiring August futures. The rebound looks to be driven by a few factors: 1) an oversold technical condition (2) decent demand this week from the intense heat in the Eastern 1/2 of the U.S. (3) an uptick in LNG feed gas demand (4) worries over Russian oil & gas supply due to President Trumps' shortening of the deadline for Russia to accept a ceasefire (5) the psychological boost from the EU trade deal which has a clause for the EU to buy $750 billion of US LNG ( which is seen with a skeptical eye by many). Today's rally comes even as production remains robust.
On the back of the intense heat in the eastern half of the U.S., Celsius Energy projected Monday that the gas storage would see the first withdrawal of the season, albeit a 1 BCF withdrawal. Celsius projects that today Tuesday will see another withdrawal before cooler weather leads to further injections into storage.
U.S. domestic natural gas production was estimated at a record high of 109.66 BCF/d yesterday compared to the previous 30 day average around 108 BCF/d, according to data from Bloomberg. Reuters reports that July average NG production so far has been 107.4 BCF/d, up from June's record amount of 106.4 BCF/d. On July 9, the average for July NG production was 106.7 BCF/d.
Total feedgas flows to US LNG export terminals are today estimated up 0.902 BCF/d at 15.26 BCF/d. Reuters reported Friday that the average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants has risen to 15.7 BCF/d so far in July, up from 14.3 BCF/d in June but still below the monthly record high of 16.0 BCF/d in April.
Today is the last trading day for the August NG futures.
Despite a period of relative calm in the TTF gas market, upside risks remain which could tighten European supply from the end of August onwards, as per Rabobank commentary. The EU's new trade deal with the United States helped lift faltering natural gas prices on the continent as the week got underway, despite broader questions over its viability. Analysts say the bloc has virtually no chance of meeting the $750 billion amount for LNG imports from the U.S. Additionally the shorter deadline proposed by President Trump for Russia to agree to a ceasefire with Ukraine is seen supporting European natural gas prices. The spot TTF futures price fell last week to its lowest value since May 2nd. According to Commerzbank, cooling Middle East tensions and increased imports helped drag prices lower. Technically as the August TTF contract is set to expire tomorrow, the DC chart for TTF futures is showing momentum that has turned positive from a near oversold condition. There is a double bottom basis the DC chart from the prior 2 sessions at Euro 31.905/31.985. Resistance lies at the recent high at Euro 36.320.
The September $4.50 call saw an open interest increase of over 4,000 contracts in Monday's activity on the CME. One notable trade for the September $4.50 call saw it sold two times versus the purchase of one September $4.00 call at a cost of 0.4 cents to the buyer of the $4.00 call. Another notable trade seen Monday on the CME saw the -$0.70 call bought versus selling of the -$2.00 put in the October January calendar spread options. The cost to the call buyer was 0.3 cents. Open interest data from the CME for the October January calendar spread options shows that the -$.70 call was being closed out, while the -$2.00 put was an initiating trade.
The September NG futures fell yesterday to their lowest daily value since Nov 8,2024. In so doing, they have a mean reversion set up from Monday's close below the lower bollinger band on the daily chart. That band today lies at 3.037. Momentum is still negative, but near oversold and looks poised to turn positive if the rally seen today holds and even extends in the next day or so. Support for the September NG lies at yesterday's low at 3.061 and then at 3.015-3.021. Resistance is seen at 3.207-3.211 and then at 3.290-2.299.
Enjoyed this article?
Subscribe to never miss an issue. Daily updates provide a comprehensive analysis of both the fundamentals and technical factors driving energy markets.
Click below to view our other newsletters on our website:
Disclaimer
This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC
Reply