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- Natural Gas Update July 7,2025
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Overview
Natural Gas--NG is down 6.7 cents
Weather demand is not strong enough to support prices at present --with near normal weather. Last week's EIA storage data showing ample inventories is also likely weighing on prices.
Last Thursday's EIA gas storage data showed an increase of 55 BCF. Total storage rose to 2.953 TCF. That is +173 BCF/+6.22% versus the 5 year average, but -176BCF/-5.96% versus last year's level. Storage levels have now increased by a massive +1180 BCF for the storage injection season so far, 253 BCF bearish versus the 5-year average. (Celsius Energy) NGI commentary cites solar and coal generation taking away from gas power usage. Early estimates for this week's EIA gas storage number are calling for a build of 58 BCF. This compares to last year's build of 61 BCF and the 5 year average build of 53 BCF.
As an example of temperatures for the U.S. in the coming weeks, temperatures in the key Texas demand area are seen near to below average over the next 14 days. Houston will see temperatures from -4 to +2 degrees versus the monthly average. San Antonio temperatures will be -3/-6 degrees versus normal over the next 14 days, while Dallas will have temperatures -3/-8 degrees versus the monthly average. Chicago will have temperatures that are -3 to +4 degrees versus average over the next 14 days.
Activity in the natural gas and oil breadbasket of the country – across Texas, northern Louisiana and southern New Mexico – contracted during the second quarter, as business activity turned negative, according to a quarterly survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Energy activity in the region declined to minus 8.1 from a positive 3.8 in the first three months of this year. The Dallas Fed's survey of oil executives see the price for natural gas at $3.66 in 6 months, rising to $3.81 in a year. (NGI)
The Baker Hughes gas rig count issued last Thursday showed a decrease of 1 unit.
Technically NG spot futures have negative momentum basis the DC chart. Support below is seen at 3.214-3.217. Resistance comes in at the overnight high at 3.434-3.435 and then at 3.513-3.520.t and images here
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