Natural Gas Update June 6,2025

Overview

Natural Gas-NG is up 3.0 cents
NG futures are higher today. Traders are betting on rising temperatures and recovering LNG demand in the weeks to come, even as the storage injection seen Thursday was greater than forecast.

Lower 48 natural gas demand is estimated up 0.587 BCF/d today and the highest since April 11 at 72.45 BCF/d, Bloomberg shows. Demand is well above the previous five-year average around 66 BCF/d.

The GFS 6z 15day has risen nearly 20 CDDs nationally. (Market News) Forecaster Vaisala said Thursday that forecasts shifted warmer in the Midwest and Northeast for June 10-14. (MSN)

Plaquemines LNG secured FERC approval to flow gas to Block 12 yesterday, and they looked to be flexing that new capacity already as nominations hit 2.7 BCF/d last night and now 2.80 BCF/d with the early cycles today. (Criterion Research) Plaquemines had been running at a rate of about 2.0 to 2.2 BCF/d over the past 2 months.

The EIA storage disappointed with a build of 122 BCF, which was 9 to 12 BCF more than news wire surveys. This was the 6th straight week of +100 BCF injections. That is one week shy of the all-time longest streak of 100+ BCF injections seen in 2014. The streak of 100+ BCF injections is seen continuing the next 2 weeks possibly. Total storage rose in this week's data to 2.598 TCF. This is +117 BCF / +4.71 % versus the 5 year average, but -288 BCF/+9.98% versus last year's level.

Celsius Energy offered the following analysis to the EIA storage number: the 122 BCF storage injection seen in Thursday's EIA data thus puts this year’s to-date injection at a massive +825 BCF, which is 197 BCF bearish versus the 5-year average, and nearly 100 BCF ahead of the second highest level seen in 2020 of +728 BCF.

Thursday's settlements for NG futures on the CME showed the front losing value versus the back again. July spot futures fell by 3.9 cents and August fell by 2.9 cents, while December and January futures were down only 1 tick. As one fund manager says : "  The forward curve shows higher prices as LNG projects “go live and demand outpaces supply.”  Looking ahead to the winter, the January 2026 contract has already topped $5, but an energy consulting firm says they wouldn’t be surprised if the November, December and February contracts also break through $5 later this summer when traders start to focus on the winter months.

Today is the first day of the index fund roll in gas futures. The usual expectation was for longs to have to roll forward and thus for the first month to drop in value versus the third month, where longs were being moved to. But, in recent months the opposite has occurred as more short positions look to have been rolled forward and hence the front month has gained on contracts further back. Given the speculative interest leaning short, we suspect that the front month will hold against further back contracts, despite the large premium that the front month is carrying versus the cash and the large storage injections seen over the past 6 weeks.

Technically, NG  still has positive momentum basis the DC chart. Resistance lies above at yesterday's high at 3.791 and then at 3.840. Support comes in at 3.608-3.613. The 100 day moving average intersects today at 3.696.

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This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

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