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- Natural Gas Update March 10,2026
March 12, 2026
Overview
Natural Gas --NG is down 7.7 cents at $3.043
NG futures are lower as they have fallen back to the range that existed most of this month -prior to the past 2 sessions' rallies. President Trump's comments on the Iran war being complete is weighing on NG as well as TTF prices, which have gapped lower. NG prices are lower even as feedgas demand has rebounded and the weather forecast added some demand.
The European TTF futures have gapped back down today, creating an island top from yesterday's rise to the multi year high. The news from President Trump that the Iran war could end soon has seen the TTF fall, even as European gas inventories remain low. As of early March 2026, EU natural gas storage levels have dropped below 30% capacity (approx. 29.4% as of March 7), falling to their lowest levels since 2022 due to a colder-than-expected winter and increased demand. Storage is expected to end the winter season (late March) at a 22-27% capacity range, well below the 5-year average of 41%. (Energie-Dashboard Bundesamt) TTF prices are down about 13% today after settling higher Monday by 5.74%; the contract was up 30% at its high of Euro 69.500 Monday. The gap today goes from Euro 50.945 up to 55.750. The gap created Monday goes from that low of 55.750 down to 53.835. Momentum basis the TTF DC chart has turned negative with the selloff today after spending the whole session yesterday above the DC chart's upper bollinger band.
Market News data shows LNG terminal feedgas demand is estimated 0.972 BCF/d higher today at 18.68 BCF/d. Freeport feedgas has recovered back to near normal levels today after the outage earlier this week, Market News adds.
Lower 48 states dry gas production was estimated at 114.33 BCF/d yesterday, up from Sunday's output of 114.16 BCF/d and compared to a 30-day average of 113.72 BCF/d, BNEF data shows.
The EIA gas storage data for this week is seen as a draw of 39 to 45 BCF. This compares to last year's draw of 62 BCF and the 5 year average draw of 64 BCF.
On Monday, in the LN/NG October January CSO, the -$1.00 call was sold versus buying of the -$1.50 put at a cost of 13.6 cents 5,000 lots worth. On Monday, the Oct Jan futures spread settled at -$1.409. In the April $2.50 puts, 3,000 contracts traded 1.6 cents. In the August LN options, the $4.75/$7.00 Call Spread traded in a 1 by 1.5 ratio at a cost of 12.8 cents with 0.14 delta futures sold at $3.78. All of the above options traded were positions being opened as per CME data.
Notable from Friday's LN/NG options are trades in the October January CSO. 9,000 contracts of the -$1.00 call were sold against buying of the -$2.00 put at a cost of 7.5 cents. There were 0.41 delta futures traded with that option strategy. The October futures were bought at $3.735 against selling of the January futures at $5.285. Thus the spread difference in the futures was $1.55. A further 10,000 contracts of the -$1.00 call/-$2.00 put fence traded 9.0 cents ( with no futures traded against the fence.) Also in the NG/LN October January CSO, 6,000 -$1.50/-$1.00 call spreads traded 18.5 cents. The October January spread settled Friday at -$1.531. Also notable from Friday's LN NG options activity was the October $4/$5 call spread trading 5,000 contracts worth at 22.4 cents cost with 0.21 delta futures sales at $3.78.
Technically NG futures basis the April daily chart are showing momentum turning downward as the contract heads towards $3. Support below is seen at 2.910-2.912. Upside resistance lies at 3.188-3.190.
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This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
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