Natural Gas Update March 12,2026

Overview

Natural Gas--NG is up 2.3 cents at $3.232
NG futures are up slightly as the Iran conflict and the prospect of cooler air have supported NG the past 24 hours. Celsius Energy analysis is calling for strong gas storage pulls over the next several weeks as a late-season shot of arctic air is expected. But, today's EIA gas storage data though is seen below average. 

The EIA gas storage data due out today is seen as a draw of 46 BCF, as per the WSJ survey. That compares to last year's draw of 62 BCF and the 5 year average draw of 64 BCF. The lower than average draw for this week is seen due to a sharp fall in heating demand seen last week. This saw electrical gas-fired power generation fall. Gas-fired consumption may have been even lower had it not been for a 14% decline in power output from wind last week, NGI commentary read. 

The NOAA forecasts the next 2 weeks to see below average temperatures in the Eastern half of the US, while the Western half will see above normal temperatures.  An early-season heatwave across the Southwest and Deep South late next week could even support GWDDs, Celsius Energy says. Houston is set, in a week's time, to see temperatures rising into the mid-80's, which is 10 degrees above normal. 

Celsius Energy analysis sees natural gas inventories having peaked potentially for the next month yesterday at 1871 BCF. Daily withdrawals return today and will peak early next week as a late-season shot of arctic air could push draws to -25 BCF/d, driving inventories to a seasonal nadir near 1780 BCF. That is below the EIA end March forecast for storage to be at 1.842 TCF.

There were several sizable options positions that were opened on the CME from Wednesday's activity. The April through October strip saw the $8.25/$8.75 call spread trade 0.7 cents. Open interest in those options rose by nearly 15,000 contracts across the entire strip. The October January  CSO  minus 75 cent/ minus 50 cent call spread traded in a 1 by 2 ratio at a flat price. The October January minus 50 cent call also traded against the minus $1.00 call in a 2 by 1 ratio at a cost of 5.5 cents to the -$1.00 call buyer. In the October January 3 month CSO, the minus $1.00 call and minus 75 cent call saw open interest rise by about 10,000 contracts, while the minus 50 cent call open interest rose by over 16,000 contracts. The October January futures spread settled Wednesday at -$1.432. In the July $3.25/$3.00/$2.75 put butterfly, over 6,000 butterflies traded between 2.8 and 2.9 cents. 

Technically April NG futures have positive momentum. The market has rejected a move below $3, which was tested 2 days ago. Overnight resistance at $3.280 was tested. Above this, resistance comes in at $3.379-3.385. Support is likely at 3.099-3.100 and then at 3.019-3.025.

Enjoyed this article?

Subscribe to never miss an issue. Daily updates provide a comprehensive analysis of both the fundamentals and technical factors driving energy markets.

Click below to view our other newsletters on our website:

Daily Energy Market Update

Ethanol Report

Fuel and Freight Daily Report

Disclaimer

This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC