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- Natural Gas Update March 13,2026
March 13, 2026
Overview
Natural Gas---NG is down 5.8 cents at $3.175
NG spot futures are lower now after trading higher today, having been boosted by strong LNG feedgas demand, a supportive cash price, lighter US NG production and the ongoing Iran conflict. The uptick in prices came even as the EIA gas storage data seen yesterday disappointed. NGI cites an ongoing dilemma of the geopolitical uncertainty versus the US " being on the cusp of soft weather demand".
Celisus Energy analysis says that as per Thursday’s early-cycle pipeline data, LNG feedgas demand rose to 19.3 BCF/d, up +4.2 BCF/d vs 2025 & within 0.2 BCF/d of record highs, courtesy of higher Sabine Pass volumes & near-record interstate flows to Corpus Christi.
US NG output on Thursday was seen at 112. 26 BCF/d as per BNEF data. That is down from BNEF's figure from Sunday of 114. 16 BCF/d.
The EIA gas storage data saw a lighter than expected draw from inventories Thursday. The draw of 36 BCF was about 4 to 8 BCF less than forecast. Total storage fell to 1.848 TCF. This is 141 BCF/8.26% above last year's level, but -17 BCF/-0.91% versus the 5 year average. Next week's EIA gas storage is seen as an injection of 24 BCF as per Celsius Energy analysis and +46 BCF as per the BNEF forecast. This would be the first injection of the season. These estimates compare to last year's build of 9 BCF and the 5 year average draw for the period of 29 BCF.
U.S. spot natural gas prices for Thursday at the Waha Hub in the Permian Shale in West Texas closed in negative territory for a record 25th straight day as pipeline constraints trap gas in the nation’s biggest oil-producing basin, prompting some analysts to project that gas production could be reduced in the short term. “Continued negative pricing in the Permian is expected for much of the spring. As regional production likely ebbs lower, it may dent national-level headline output in tandem in coming weeks,” analysts at consultancy EBW Analytics Group said in a note. Gas production in the basin has climbed by around 12% a year on average over the past five years (2021-2025). But gas output growth in the Permian is expected to slow to around 4% a year on average in 2026 and 2027, according to EIA’s latest estimates. The cash average price at the Waha Hub fell to minus $6.34 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) for Thursday, down from minus $5.40 for Wednesday and a record minus $7.15 for Tuesday. (Reuters)
Notable in NG settlements Thursday is the fact that the front April May spread flipped to a positive, with April over May for the first time in almost 6 weeks. The stronger April May spread was likely helped by a stronger next day cash Henry Hub gas price. Thursday's Henry Hub (HH) cash gained 12.5 cents to $3.270, per NGI’s MidDay Price Alert. The HH cash also gained on the front end April NG futures. The cash premium to the spot futures rose Thursday to +5/+7 cents, up from the +2 cent premium the cash held versus April futures in the prior 3 sessions. NGI’s Spot Gas National Average price was up 19.0 cents Thursday to $1.910/MMBtu.
Also Thursday on the CME, the back end Dec 26 thru Feb 27 strip again settled at a better value than the April and May contracts in the front. Dec 26 settled +4.5 cents, Jan 27 was up 5.2 cents and Feb 27 was up 4.2 cents --while April was up 2.4 cents and May was up 1.5 cents. We have seen this occur several times in recent weeks with commentary suggesting a demand increase is expected for LNG come next winter.
Asia's scramble for LNG to replace output cut off by war in the Middle East is drawing more cargoes away from Europe, with at least one U.S. shipment switching its destination to China, which would end a year-long halt in such imports due to tariffs. Asian buyers of liquefied natural gas have been paying around $20 to $25 per mmBtu for March and April delivery. (LSEG) By comparison, today the TTF European spot April futures are trading near $16.61/ mmBtu.
On Thursday, the EIA issued a report detailing their opinion about the buildout of data centers and the boost in electrical demand that that will have going thru to 2027. They detail how wholesale electric prices might rise quickly if the supply of electrical generation does not keep pace with their higher demand forecast. They key on the ERCOT and PJM systems to detail the growth. (eia.gov)
On Thursday, in the LN/NG options on the CME, the July and August $4/$6 call spreads traded in a 1 by 2 ratio at a cost of 14.6 cents --with 0.12 delta futures sold at $3.64.
Technically, NG spot futures have momentum basis the April daily chart looks to be turning downward with today's selloff. Resistance for the spot April futures comes in at the overnight high at 3.317-3.319. Support comes in at 3.099-3.100.
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