Natural Gas Update March 18,2026

March 18, 2026

Natural Gas--NG is up 2.9 cents at $3.062
NG futures are higher now, supported by the sharp uptick in the energies on the back of the news of the attack on the large South Pars gas field between Iran and Qatar. Overnight prices were lower as the weather forecast is showing above normal temperatures for almost all of the US in the 6 through 14 day window. Also, likely weighing on NG prices is the loss of some feedgas demand from Freeport the past few days, as well as the expectation for a bearish EIA gas storage number tomorrow.

Celsius Energy said yesterday that natural gas demand will peak today (Tuesday), likely until next November. They added that demand will retreat sharply tomorrow (Wednesday) before hugging the 5 year average through the end of the month. The 11-14 day period cumulative HDD count as of late yesterday was showing a total of 44.07 HDD, which is 9.68 HDD below the 10-year average. (Market News)

Late Tuesday, news was that Freeport LNG was receiving about 0.450 BCF/d less feedgas than normal.  Flows through Gulf South to Freeport are down to just over 1 BCF/d, from about 1.46 BCF/d the day before. Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants has slid to 18.5 BCF/d so far in March, down from a record 18.7 BCF/d in February. (Reuters)

US dry gas consumption is estimated down 12.2 BCF/d today at 94.16 BCF/d but still above the seasonal five-year average of around 80.9 BCF/d, Bloomberg shows.

Lower 48 states dry gas production was estimated at 113.48 BCF/d yesterday compared to a 30-day average of 113.6 BCF/d, BNEF data shows. Average natural gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has risen to 109.9 BCF/d so far in March, up from 109.2 BCF/d in February, as per LSEG data. The monthly record for NG output is the 110.6 BCF/d seen this past December.

The October January CSO's saw several option strikes with sizable increases in open interest from Tuesday's activity. The -$1.00 October January call was sold versus buying of the -$2.00 put in the October January CSO at a cost of 11.0 cents. Additionally in the October January CSO, the -$1.00/-75 cent/-50 cent call butterfly traded 0.6 and 1.1 cents.  The CSO also saw the -75 /-50 cent call spread trade in a 1 by 2 ratio at a cost of 0.6 cents. The October January -$1.00 call traded  over 5,000 lots worth at a cost of 7.2 cents. 

Asian utilities are increasing coal-fired power generation to offset soaring LNG prices and supply disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict, Reuters said. Asia spot LNG prices have doubled to three-year highs during the Iran war. Reuters cites S. Korea, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and the Philippines as taking various measures to offset the LNG cost increases. Since most LNG contracts are linked to oil prices on a three-month lag, Asian buyers will pay more from June, consultancy Wood Mackenzie said.

Technically NG spot futures have negative momentum. Support is seen at 2.910-2.912 and then at 2.867-2.868. Resistance lies at 3.130-3.135 and then at 3.188-3.190.