Natural Gas Update March 20,2026

Overview

Natural Gas--NG is down 9.3 cents at $3.073
NG futures are lower ---following the crude oil price fall. Yesterday's EIA storage data disappointed. Today is the beginning of spring, reinforcing the shoulder season's lower demand period.

US dry gas consumption is estimated down another 8.1 BCF/d today at 76.28 BCF/d and just below the seasonal five-year average of around 80.4 BCF/d, Bloomberg data shows.

Yesterday's EIA gas storage data showed a build of 35 BCF. That was 4 to 9 BCF more than the survey estimates from WSJ and Reuters. Total storage rose to 1.883 TCF. That put storage 177 BCF/10.38% over year ago level. The deficit to the 5 year average flipped to a surplus with this week's data. The surplus to the 5 year average stood at 47 BCF (+2.56%). The larger than forecast build was due to low natural gas power demand during the reporting week, with wind power generation having risen by 39%. Heating demand was down 32% on the week. (NGI)

Lower US 48 states dry gas production is estimated  today at 112.66 BCF/d compared to a 30-day average of 113.49 BCF/d, BNEF data shows.

Yesterday the cash futures price differential was near flat in mid-morning trading. This was versus the +9.5 cent premium for the cash seen Wednesday. We see the narrower differential being a function of the futures being bolstered by the Iran war and the outage of LNG production expected in Qatar in the coming years. QatarEnergy, the state-owned operator of Ras Laffan, said Thursday that the missile attacks reduced the country’s export capacity of liquefied natural gas by 17% (about 13 million tons/year) and that it could take up to five years to repair, impacting supply to markets in Europe and Asia. (CNN/Bloomberg)

Notable options activity seen Thursday on the CME saw the initiation of November December one month CSO call positions. The - 60/-70/-80 cent butterfly traded 1.6 cents. In the September options, the $7/$8/$8.75 call butterfly traded 0.85 cents with the $7 and $8 calls being opening positions.

Technically NG still has negative momentum, although it basically remains stuck in the trading range seen this month. Support below comes in at 2.998-3.006 and then at 2.920-2.923. Resistance lies at Thursday's high at 3.270-3.280.

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This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

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