Natural Gas Update March 23,2026

Overview

Natural Gas-May NG is down 14.4 cents at $2.920
NG futures prices are lower today having been dragged down by the sharp pullback in energy prices seen this morning on the back of President Trump's tweets. NG futures are also being weighed down by the prospect for overall tepid gas demand as shoulder season is upon us in the US, even as record warmth invades the Western portion of the US.

The  US Lower 48 states' HDD count in the 11-14 day period fell to 28.1 in the latest run from 33.54, which is 20.47 HDD below the 10-year normal. (Market News)

Spring officially arrived Friday, March 20, and new forecasts say it's shaping up to be a warm few months for most Americans. The news comes as much of the Western United States has already been enduring a summer preview from a huge, record-smashing heat dome across the region. Meanwhile, drought conditions are forecast to worsen or develop for many areas in the West and south-central Plains, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Spring Outlook released March 20 for April through June. That means that hydropower will be lost, making possibly for more NG demand for power generation. (USA Today)

US Lower 48 states dry natural gas production is estimated 0.234 BCF/d higher today at 112.38 BCF/d compared to a 30-day average of 113.39 BCF/d, BNEF data shows.

European TTF prices could average €75/MWh ($25.4/MMBtu) in Q2 2026 and Asian JKM around $26.8/MMBtu on LNG supply disruptions, according to Citi forecasts cited by Reuters. The outlook remains highly uncertain and hinges on the duration and severity of the disruption to LNG flows, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz. TTF could fall to €40/MWh if the conflict ends within one to two weeks and the strait fully reopens. According to a report by British bank HSBC Holdings, as reported by Bloomberg, European natural gas prices this year will be 40% higher than previously forecast and will remain elevated through 2027 amid supply shortages Goldman Sachs warns prices could more than double from here if the Strait stays closed another month. (Forbes) The flow of LNG from the Gulf comes to an abrupt end in the next 10 days, when a handful of final tankers from the region reach their destinations. (Financial Times) Reuters said Saturday that the EU pushed members to scale back gas-storage refill goals to 80% from 90%. Officials, it seems, want to avoid fueling more upside. (Reuters)

Japanese utilities are holding back on LNG purchases for now, a trader confirmed. “Only a few buyers are considering spot cargoes.” While Japan is the world’s second biggest LNG importer after China, it is less exposed to the disruption of flows from the Middle East as only 6 per cent of its supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz. China gets 30 per cent of its LNG from the Gulf but has some domestic gas production and can switch to coal-fired power generation if needed. China gets 30 per cent of its LNG from the Gulf but has some domestic gas production and can switch to coal-fired power generation if needed. (Financial Times)

CFTC data from Friday's COT report showed money managers reduced their net short position in NG futures/options on the CME by 17,975 contracts in the week ended Tuesday March 17. This brought their total net short position down to 44,600 contracts.

Early estimates seen for this week's EIA gas storage data are calling for a draw of 46.6 to 54 BCF. That compares to last year's build of 33 BCF and the 5 year average draw of 21 BCF.

Technically the May daily NG chart has negative momentum. Support is seen at 2.844-2.849 and then at 2.807. Resistance lies at 3.09-3.096 and then at the double top from Friday/today at 3.134-3.136.

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