Natural Gas Update March 26,2026

Overview

Natural Gas-- May NG is up 1.7 cents at $2.929
NG futures are up slightly as they are being buffeted by the geopolitical premium of the Iran conflict, together with strong LNG feedgas demand and an "anticipated strong powerburn" versus the weak weather demand of the shoulder season.

Weather forecasts are showing temperatures remaining warmer than normal through April 8, which would reduce heating demand in the coming weeks. (Tradingview.com) Gas-Weighted Degree Days (GWDDs) remain at or below the 5-year average. (Celsius Energy)

The April LN NG options expire today with the $3.00 strike on the CME showing open interest of near 62,700 contracts. The individual options show  the $ 2.90 call with 6,297 contracts. the $3.00 call 18,853 contracts  $3.25 call 16,736 contracts   $2.75 put 33,413 contracts  $2.80 put 9,675 contracts  $2.90 put 9,670 contracts  $3.00 put 43,856 contracts  $3.25 put 14,650 contracts. Given the large open interest at the $3.00 strike, will the futures be drawn to that price at settlement today?

The EIA gas storage data due out today is seen as bullish as a draw of 51 BCF is expected, as per the WSJ survey. This compares favorably to last year's build of 33 BCF and the 5 year average draw for the period of 21 BCF. NGI commentary re this week's EIA data reads as follows: " A 43 BCF withdrawal would put Lower 48 natural gas in storage on pace to exit March at 1,846 BCF, 68 BCF higher than the median since 2010. " The EIA in this month's STEO forecasted EOS March 2026 storage to be 1.842 TCF. NGI suggests that the draw is due to increased HDD's during the period.  Heating degree days (HDD) across the continental U.S. states increased by 49 HDDs to 132 HDDs, thus pushing the NG average daily power burn up 6% on the week.

TTF European futures have rebounded the past 24 hours on the back of the raised geopolitical premium. The gap created yesterday early to 51.760 has been filled. Today's spot TTF price is Euro 54.745. Storage across the European Union is running low ahead of the stockpiling season, with inventories in the Netherlands at just 6% capacity and Germany around 22%. “Refilling them prior to the next heating season could fuel competition for cargo if these supply disruptions persist,” analysts at ANZ say. (WSJ)

The Dallas Fed quarterly survey of 200 oil and gas firms has a forecast for the year end Henry Hub gas price of $3.60. Furthermore, when asked about longer-term expectations, respondents on average said they expect a Henry Hub gas price of $4.03 per MMBtu two years from now and $4.42 per MMBtu five years from now. (dallasfed.org)

Analysis seen has detailed the upcoming spring maintenance schedule for some of the LNG export plants in the US.  Sabine Pass maintenance, which begins as early as April, can bring as much as 1.5 BCF/d of feedgas offline in June, when maintenance is at its peak. The Sabine maintenance is seen lasting 20 days. Corpus Christi maintenance is less consistent of a trend, but can see upwards of 0.2 BCF/d less feedgas through the summer.  One analyst has this Corpus Christi maintenance lasting 3 days starting April 22.  The analyst also says that the 0.8 BCF/d Cameron MD normally goes into maintenance for 3 weeks starting around May 3.  Yet, much has been written in the past few days of some of this spring maintenance being delayed due to summer demand that is foreseen. As an example, delayed Cheniere maintenance could add 160 BCF of Summer Demand, as per Market News analysis. Sabine and Cameron delayed maintenance in 2022 due to high netbacks.

Notable in Wednesday's NG futures trading activity on the CME is the very low volume. Total volume in NG futures was 294, 055 contracts. Several comments regarding Wednesday's NG trading used the word "rangebound". One analyst says: Natural gas prices remain in a listless, rudderless environment.

Technically the May NG futures continue to have negative momentum. Support lies at 2.844-2.849 and then at 2.807. Resistance comes in at 2.951-2.956 and then at 2.981-2.982.

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