Natural Gas Update March 3,2026

March 4, 2026

India has begun rationing natural gas while countries around Asia looked to the spot market to replace supplies, activated emergency plans and prepared to step ‌up production, as the conflict in the Middle East curtailed shipping and halted Qatari output. LNG buyers in Asia account for more than 80% of shipments from Qatar, the world's No. 2 producer after the U.S., according to data from analytics firm Kpler. (Reuters)

The cumulative Lower 48 US States 11-14 day HDD count rose to 61.4 HDD in the latest run, compared to 49.44 HDD in the previous run. (Market News) NatGasWeather shows the European model having added a total of 13.5 HDD in the latest 2 weather runs.

Daily freight rates for LNG tankers jumped more than 40% on Monday after Qatar halted production. Atlantic rates rose to $61,500 per day on Monday, up 43%, or $18,750, from Friday, according to Spark Commodities. Pacific rates rose to $41,000 per day, up 45%, or $12,750, from Friday. The principal analyst for global LNG at energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie, said spot daily LNG shipping rates could rise above $100,000 this week on tight supply.  (Reuters)

US Lower 48 states dry gas production is estimated 0.858 BCF/d lower at 113.6 BCF/d today compared to a 30-day average of 113.33 BCF/d in Feb, BNEF data shows.

NG futures eased back Monday from the early morning high as weather forecasts showed lower demand, thus offsetting the global increase in LNG prices due to the ongoing tension/disruptions in the Mideast. On Monday weather forecasts showed US heating demand for the week ending Mar. 7 was forecast to be 53 heating degree days (HDD) below the long-term normal, according to NOAA.

The Henry Hub next day cash was still valued near $3.00 Monday, thus capping strength in NG futures. The next day cash futures differential was seen at about a 3 cent premium, versus the +13/+17 cent differential seen Friday. 

This week's EIA gas storage data is seen as a draw of 120 to 129 BCF. This compares to last year's draw of 106 BCF and the 5 year average draw of 96 BCF. NGI analysis states that :"If average withdrawals from the previous last five years persist through the end of March, then Lower 48 gas in storage would exit winter at 1,787 BCF. That would be in line with both the 1,799 BCF that remained in storage after the winter of 2024/25 and the median 1,778 BCF end of winter figure since 2010."  The EIA in February's STEO forecast EOS inventories at 1.866 TCF. The Desk's latest survey estimates EOS March 2026 natural gas inventories at 1.841 TCF.

Technically NG futures have positive momentum. Upside resistance is seen at 3.202-3.206. There is a gap on the April daily chart to fill from 3.190 to 3.202. Further resistance above is seen at 3.277-3.281. Support is likely at 2.998-3.000, which is above the overnight low of 2.973. Below that support comes in at 2.910-2.912.